The opposing sides are oilmen who want to raise gasoline prices and the government is wary of popular riots.. Oilmen scared of a possible reduction in fuel production by 20% while maintaining the same prices and closing some refineries (refineries), and the government responded with threats to impose restrictions on oil exports. So we are all on the verge of a big fuel war.. What does all the Russians? And despite the fact that it is ordinary people who want to buy affordable goods in stores, do not go broke at the gas station and do not remember the fuel shortage of the first half of the 90s. will end up in these wars. Yesterday, the government held a meeting of representatives of the authorities with the oil industry, at which Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak tried to convince representatives of the oil industry to sign an agreement to freeze fuel prices. And here it is signed! Success and victory? We are happy and believe that gas prices will not rise? Alas, but no. When it comes to conflicts in business relations, the rule of the strong begins to act: who is stronger, he sets the rules. In this dispute, big business and official authorities are on the side of business.. Officials may threaten to impose restrictions on oil exports as much as they like, but this is similar to the principle “in spite of my grandmother I’ll freeze my ears”: the federal budget has not got rid of the raw material dependence. Oil and gas revenues form 46% of the federal budget. Restricting exports would jeopardize the fulfillment of the government’s social obligations — financial suicide. Oil industry workers understood this very well and boldly dictated their conditions. The fact is that the terms of this agreement do not eliminate the risk of fuel shocks.. Firstly, it provides for the restriction of only wholesale prices for fuel at the level of June. About retail prices in the document does not say. That is, prices at gas stations should remain approximately at the current level, but they will not be less to ensure the profitability of gas stations.. Independent gas stations that sell 40% of gasoline in Russia should rejoice: recently, oil giants have been actively squeezing them out of the market, selling more expensive fuel than retail. But where are the guarantees that there will be no other non-price restrictions on the supply of fuel to an independent gas station? Previously, vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs are companies that produce oil, process and sell it, for example, Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazpromneft, Tatneft) did not make sense, because they sold gasoline to independent refineries at a market price.. Now it is much more profitable for them to sell fuel at their gas stations so as not to lose profits.. This is how the prerequisites were created artificially to redistribute the market and reduce competition.. Plus the threat of fuel shortages at independent gas stations. Yes, Energy Minister Alexander Novak suggested that fuel supplies to the domestic market should increase by 3%, but these are only assumptions.. In addition, he did not specify how the additional volumes will be distributed.. Also, representatives of oil giants, realizing full control over the situation, achieved an increase in compensation payments from the budget to 200 billion. rubles. That means down with social support, now everything is for the oilmen! And the fact that the net profit of Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazpromneft and Tatneft in the first half of 2018 increased by 2.7 times compared to the same period last year and exceeded 800 billion. rubles, so it is, according to the Cabinet, apparently the little things. And even if the oil quotations are gone, hitting the budget, the oilmen are still guaranteed to receive their 200 billion. rubles. It turns out that after accepting the agreement, those VINKI lose nothing at the sale of fuel at their gas stations (60% of retail sales). All their so-called “losses” are only from wholesale sales by independent gas stations, which they more than compensate for the budget support they received.. Interesting, but unoriginal move. So it was with the metallurgists: the initial "withdrawals" from them to 500 billion. rubles very soon turned into safe investments with guaranteed profitability. Now the ostentatious "forcing" of oil companies to limit prices has become another support for commodity companies.. Requiring the Federal Antimonopoly Service to prevent such blackmail is meaningless. Actually, the government is powerless here too.. The sad consequences of these fuel wars for people can be avoided only in two ways: either nationalize the largest strategically important raw materials companies and convert them to the status of non-profit enterprises, or develop the non-primary sector. In the USA, for example, the oil industry provides only 1.1% of GDP, even though they are striving to become the largest producers of oil.. As a result, the oil lobby does not have such unlimited power as in our country, and Trump can safely pursue a policy aimed at reducing the cost of oil and fuel.. Both ways are not easy, but there are no other options.. In general, artificial constraints imposed cannot have a positive effect on the market..

Any state regulation of prices only delays the onset of problems that you still have to rake.. So it was, for example, with life-saving drugs.. At first, the government restricted prices, and then they simply refused to let them out - it became unprofitable. So with gasoline: until March 31, prices will be held back, but what will happen next. At best, a new round of bidding for additional subsidies and the return of excise taxes will open.. And at worst, we will observe how the numbers on the scoreboard with prices before refueling are changing rapidly..