The ruble continues to maintain stability in recent weeks.
Moreover, in the coming days, his course may noticeably grow. However, already at the beginning of the next month, the “Russian” will lose all his strength and will roll down under the influence of external factors.. Today in the course of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the Russian currency is rising against the dollar and the euro. As of 11:08 Moscow time, the American currency decreased in price by 11 kopecks, to 65.54 rubles.. Euro meanwhile dropped by 4 kopecks, to 75.96 rubles, according to the website of the trading platform. The ruble does not scare the volatility of world markets. He calmly experienced a fall in oil prices, a decline in stock prices in the United States and Russia, as well as an increase in US government bond yields.. Confidence in the Russian currency comes from the absence of dollar intervention in the domestic market by the Bank of Russia (the regulator, we recall, abandoned them until the end of the year to support the ruble exchange rate). Investors and the statement of the head of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva that the rate reduction in the near future is unlikely. This means that the yield of Russian bonds will increase, and therefore the players look with interest in their direction.. An additional internal factor in the strengthening of the ruble was the tax period, which began on October 15 with the commencement of the payment of mandatory insurance contributions to the budget.. The peak of tax payments falls on October 25, when MET, VAT and excise taxes will be transferred to the treasury.. Further, there is an improvement in the mood of the traders on the global stock exchanges.. They have already played the forecast of the International Monetary Fund to reduce global GDP. In addition, the financial organization has improved expectations for economic growth in the Russian Federation, which the players perceived as a good sign for the ruble, notes Rossiyskaya Gazeta. To all this, you can add and stabilize the price of black gold.. In the medium term, they are unlikely to decrease significantly.. Market participants are waiting for a significant reduction in oil supplies to the world market from Iran.
US President Donald Trump said earlier that he would do everything in his power to completely stop the supply of Iranian fuel.. Based on these factors, we can assume that in the next couple of weeks, the ruble will grow a little more compared to the dollar and euro.
Until the end of the month, the US currency will move in the range of 65.5-66 rubles, the European - in the corridor of 76-76.5 rubles. However, after this, difficult times will begin for the ruble..
"After the tax period, pressure on the ruble will intensify against the background of cyclical factors. And other predictable negative incentives will be added to them: new sanctions and payments on external debt, "said Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov (quoted from Prime).