US senators from the Republican and Democratic parties submitted to the parliament a bill that toughens sanctions against Russia. According to Senator-Republican Lindsay Graham, the current sanctions "could not prevent Russia's interference in the coming in 2018.

midterm elections "in the USA. In addition to Graham, the authors of the bill are Republicans John McCain and Corey Gardner, as well as Democrats Ben Cardin and Gene Shahin. The document, in particular, provides for "stricter sanctions on the energy and financial sectors of Russia, its" oligarchs and state-owned enterprises, "and the application of" sanctions against Russia's sovereign debt, "Reuters reports.. Shortly before, with forecasts of how the imposition of sanctions on external debt will affect the Russian ruble, analysts said Citigroup Inc. In their opinion, if the Russian bonds are still under sanctions, by the end of this year the ruble exchange rate may collapse by another 15%. The only condition for such an outcome is the US decision to impose sanctions on Russia's sovereign debt obligations, formalized as federal loan bonds (OFZ). At the moment, on the hands of foreign investors is about 28% of Russian OFZ, bringing their holders a yield of 7.73% per annum. According to Citi's forecasts, if sanctions are imposed, the Russian Central Bank will be forced to significantly raise interest rates in order to keep the attractiveness of Russia's foreign debt for the remaining foreign investors, writes Bloomberg. According to some experts, the critical for the exchange rate of the national currency is the presence in the hands of foreigners of more than 30% of issued bonds. The current figure of 28% is extremely close to this mark.

A hasty conclusion by foreigners of money from a third of the country's foreign debt will inevitably lead to the collapse of its currency. How realistic is this forecast? "The fall of the ruble by 15%? This is, roughly speaking, up to 72.5 rubles per dollar? Yes, it is absolutely real," analyst of the Kalita-Finance FC Dmitry Golubovsky. - Moreover, the ruble, and without sanctions, will calmly go there if oil appreciably falls in price. And this is possible, if the Iranian fears do not come true ". According to the expert, the probability of such an outcome is even higher than the probability of imposing sanctions on the Russian debt. "Since I do not see information about any large-scale military preparations in the Persian Gulf region, and such information would necessarily leak into the Black Sea and specialized publications, I do not appreciate the probability of an escalation of the Iranian issue," Golubovsky explained. - Due to this, I expect that the decline in the cost of oil is more likely than its growth. I would put 60% on the decline from the current levels of ". However, there is no reason to completely discount the danger of the United States imposing "debt sanctions". "Regarding sanctions against OFZ, everything depends on midterm elections in the US in November this year," said the analyst.. "Democrats will strengthen their position, Trump's position will be weakened, and then sanctions can be tightened up". On the other hand, the already issued Russian OFZs, which are in the hands of foreign investors, have some protection against various kinds of political decisions. This applies to both American and European investors. It is likely that even if a political decision is made to impose sanctions on Russia's external debt, the US Treasury will not spread new rules to those securities that are already in the hands of investors. The financial department is well aware that such a decision will lead to a collapse of the Russian market, and as a result, the losses of investors themselves, who are unlikely to be thanked for this.

Instead, Russian bonds of new issues are likely to fall under restrictions. This, on the one hand, will avoid a sharp and complete dumping of Russian OFZ by foreigners, which are subject to the decisions of the US Treasury, which excludes the possibility of any catastrophic consequences for the ruble. On the other hand, the former interest in Russia's debt in this situation is unlikely to persist, and so the ruble will not be able to avoid a weakening either. Although it will no longer bear the nature of a collapse, as it was in 2014.