In the coming days, a lull is expected in the foreign exchange market, connected with long weekend. But after the May holidays, the "green" will continue its victorious procession. The share of the ruble will be severely tested. Yesterday, on the penultimate working day of the week, the ruble conducted a successful counterattack against foreign currencies. The rate of the US dollar on the Moscow stock exchange "tomorrow" fell by 90 kopecks, to 62.15 rubles, the euro exchange rate - by 47 kopecks, to 75.41 rubles. This largely came about thanks to the decision of the "subordination" Oleg Deripaska to make concessions to the United States - to reduce his stake in the company "Rusal" below 50% and withdraw from its board of directors in order to withdraw the aluminum giant from sanctions. Investors appreciated this step. However, this surge will not allow us to break the main trend that is negative for the ruble. At the end of April, the dollar rate appreciably strengthened to the major world currencies. It is connected with the news from the USA. The yield of US government bonds (US Treasures) rose to a record 3%. All investors rushed to buy them. Demand for dollars has increased dramatically, and with it the rate has also grown. Players are looking forward to the decisions of the Federal Reserve System. At the May meeting, the regulator may once again raise the discount rate, which will further strengthen the US currency. In these circumstances, we should expect a noticeable appreciation of the dollar to the euro, the ruble and other currencies, believes Roman Tkachuk, senior analyst at Alpari. On the wave of expansion of sanctions in April, the ruble sank 9% against the dollar and 7% against the euro. If it were not for the price of oil, which for the month increased by 10%, the fall of the ruble could be even stronger. The dollar of 62 rubles and the euro at 75 rubles - this is a new market reality, to which Russians will have to get used to. Expect a rollback of the dollar below 60 rubles, and the euro - to 70 rubles is not worth it. The mood of investors next month will affect not only the behavior of the dollar. They are very much afraid of a new expansion of sanctions against Moscow, especially the blacklisting of large companies (such as Rusal) and the ban on the purchase of Russian bonds. Therefore, any rumor on this score can bring down the ruble. The main thing is that the Russian authorities do not respond with mirror measures. Possible introduction of anti-American sanctions will do more harm to the Russian economy, not the US. The RF Ministry of Finance does not help the ruble stay afloat, but, on the contrary, drowns it even more. By the end of April, the volume of daily purchases of foreign currency from the ministry increased to 18.7 billion rubles. On the eve, on April 27, the Bank of Russia left the key rate unchanged - at the level of 7.25%. If in May it will resume its consistent decline, it will also weaken the ruble. But in the coming week, Russians can breathe peacefully.

Because of holidays, volatility (exchange rate fluctuations) in the foreign exchange market will subside. The weakening of the ruble from current levels is not expected. "Stabilization of the ruble exchange rate is already a positive factor.

At the end of April, the external background for the ruble improved. Judging by the latest statements of the US administration, in the near future, no new sanctions against Russia are expected, which means that on May holidays you can safely rest without worrying about the ruble rate, "Roman Tkachuk concluded..