The US is preparing a new destructive "bomb" for Russia

11 April 2018, 09:28 | Economy
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Their launch will lead to consequences, compared to which the past storm on the exchanges will seem an easy breeze. This will be a full-scale economic war, experts warn. The other day in the US Congress, Democrat Joaquin Castro and Republican Mike Turner introduced a bill that radically tightens the anti-Russian sanctions regime. The document, entitled "The Solidarity Act against Great Britain Against Russia's Violations" is positioned as a response to the poisoning of Skripal and a number of other "aggressive" actions by the Russian government. Congressmen propose to completely prohibit American citizens and companies from carrying out any operations with the Russian public debt. The obligations, issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and the National Welfare Fund with a maturity of more than two weeks. The bonds of the seven largest Russian state banks are equated to sovereign securities: Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Bank of Moscow, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank and VEB. The banks themselves will also fall into the grip of "justice": it is planned to block any transactions involving their participation and transactions with their assets that are in the US or controlled by an American company. According to the draft, all these restrictions will affect only those securities that will be issued six months after the law comes into force. That is, the current holders of Russia's debt obligations, among which about a third - foreign investors, including the US, should not suffer. Nevertheless, the news provoked a new wave of OFZ and Eurobond sales. To a large extent, this was exactly the same as the escalation of the next Syrian conflict caused further ruble weakening on Tuesday, despite the recovery of stock exchanges and rising oil prices. Speculative games (carry trade) with Russian securities, which provide high demand for the national currency, have been the main support for it for the past 1.5-2 years. The value of the dollar during the day reached 64 rubles. th, the euro exceeded the level of 78 rubles. In the Russian Finance Ministry, the response was modest, saying that the proposal submitted to the US Congress so far only the position of two separate congressmen, and the sale of sovereign securities - the usual herd instinct, a classic emotional reaction that will not last long. Nevertheless, for the first time in 2.5 years, the agency canceled the weekly auction for placement of ruble-denominated OFZ bonds, which was to be held on April 11.

The reason for this decision was unfavorable market conditions. More recently, the introduction of sanctions against the Russian public debt seemed unlikely and most independent analysts, especially after the findings of the US Ministry of Finance that such restrictions will cause great damage to the global financial markets. But in the current tense geopolitical conditions, when events develop rapidly, unpredictably and ominously, anything can be admitted. "In principle, now any negative options may have a chance of implementation. Trump Administration and the President of America himself calls himself the most tough US president in relation to Russia. It is unlikely that he will stop, "predicted the leading analyst of AMarkets Artem Deev. According to the expert, the pressure on Russia will only increase. And, certainly, imposing sanctions on sovereign securities will hurt the Russian economy. "American investors will start leaving the Russian market, thereby setting an example for other countries that support US sanctions.

To no good this will not lead. Economic and financial isolation is not beneficial to our country, "- explained the analyst" Utro ". For the ruble, the consequences of foreign investors' exit from Russian assets may well be catastrophic.

If geopolitical risks between the US and the Russian Federation jump to a new level, panicky sales of the Russian debt will turn the gradual weakening of the national currency into a collapse, and even the Bank of Russia will not be able to stop it, some experts warn.. According to the Central Bank, non-residents own 34% of all OFZs for a total of 2.27 trillion rubles. The massive flight of speculative capital can lead to an explosive devaluation, as it was at the turn of 2014 and 2015.




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