The ruble is knocked out from under the feet. Geopolitical tensions are mounting, Russian assets are becoming increasingly dangerous for foreigners. Even expensive oil does not save. In this situation, the dollar may reach its maximum value this month from the beginning of the year in relation to the ruble. On the eve of the exchange rate of the Russian currency varied in different directions. Compared to the dollar, it sank by 8 cents, the euro went up by 29 cents.
Today, trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange opened lower quotes "Russian".
The American currency in the first minutes grew by 16 cents, to 57.73 rubles; euro strengthened by 11 kopecks, to 70.76 rubles. There is nothing surprising. The exchange of stuttering because of the "business of Skripal" continues, which increases the pressure on the ruble. "This creates a stable" suitcase moods "among foreign investors," said Stanislav Werner, head of the analytical department at Dominion.. The US Federal Reserve is again preparing to raise the key rate (which means that the dollar will become even more attractive for investors).
President of the United States Donald Trump is still going to conduct a trade war with Europe and China. This threatens global destabilization, therefore, large players are very wary of investing in emerging markets (including Russia).
Hence, the ruble is deprived of the necessary support. If this week, as mentioned earlier, the dollar fails to overcome the mark of 58 rubles, then it will be quite able to cope with this task. Within a month, the US currency could catch up to a peak since the beginning of the year at a level of 58.77 rubles, the euro - go above 72 rubles. Negative around so far so much that the Russian currency almost does not notice improvements in the oil market. Black gold, meanwhile, is steadily rising in price - in anticipation of the extension of the OPEC + deal and against the background of a reduction in US inventories. On the other hand, the growth of oil quotations at least a little protects the ruble from bigger troubles. The situation around the Russian currency remains alarming. But the shock changes are not expected.
Most likely, the catastrophe will not happen, even if the US financial authorities decide to raise the key rate again.
The depreciation of the Russian ruble will be gradual and gradual. "The difference in interest rates will become even less, which, against the backdrop of confrontation between Russia and the West, may prove to be an additional argument for non-residents in favor of fixing profits and repatriating capital. However, it is enough and lack of its inflow so that the ruble continues to weaken gradually, "concluded Werner.