The Finance Ministry does not seem to see any other way. And those are still obediently lining up in front of the "field of miracles" under the name of the US Treasury bonds market. This time, they expect an enchanting surprise in the form of the first since 2009. increase in the placement of treasury securities by the US Treasury, Bloomberg reports. Additional funds were needed to finance the budget deficit, which, apparently, will continue to grow. On the last day of January, the department of Stephen Mnuchin will report on plans to finance the budget deficit for the next quarter.

Against this background, US stock analysts forecast a significant increase in the volume of US government bonds. According to market participants, the offer of US treasury securities this year will grow at least twice, exceeding $ 1 trillion. Obviously, the US financial leadership is fully confident that the next portion of borrowing will be perceived by the market with undisguised joy. However, no matter what emotions they experience, they simply do not have other options. Recall that the US recorded the maximum since 2013.

The budget deficit for the fiscal year ending last September.

Even before the approval of the tax reform, the Congressional Budget Office forecasted an increase in public debt by more than $ 10 trillion by 2027. The scheme with the financing of the US budget deficit by drawing money from around the world in exchange for government debt obligations has been working without fail for many years. Interest in US debt obligations is supported not only by financial aspects, but also by creditors' confidence in the endless solvency of the US financial system. This approach looks quite logical, since for all US government obligations there is a printing press of the Fed, ready if necessary, to print any number of crispy green (now very different colors) bills. And yet some experts are beginning to fix the first signs of a possible malfunction in this well-established system. Namely: some experts are not sure of the absolute demand for a new portion of American debt from world investors and, first of all, the central banks of other countries. All this involuntarily causes light fears in the community of investors who suspect that the demand for US debt instruments may be lower than before. This will lead to lower prices for bonds and an increase in yield on them. "The demand will always be, the question is, at what price," said Torsten Slock, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank AG. - We can say that the reason for everyone expecting the growth of the yield of treasury bonds is the increase in the supply of securities ". "Over the past ten years, the US public debt has doubled and exceeded $ 20 trillion," explained Vice-President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. - In crossing for gold this is the country's largest debt in the history of mankind. Over the past half century, the expansion of credit opportunities was approved by the Congress more than 80 times. And this is more and more like a pyramid, when the US simply does not have options, except how to raise again and again the bar and occupy the market ". In this situation, the US financial department resembles an indecisive suicide, slowly and slowly tightening the noose on its own neck. It is obvious that the current external debt of the United States will never be returned. This is well understood by the creditors themselves, but they are also quite satisfied with the situation that, despite everything, the US is carefully servicing its debt and paying all coupons on it. But will this situation continue indefinitely? "As long as the debt is denominated in dollars, and the dollar remains the main world reserve currency (that is, other countries are simply forced to buy it for settlement) - there is no special threat," Vyazovsky said.. - With any sale of treasury bonds, the Fed will simply print the necessary amount and will redeem all. But how long will the dollar remain a reserve currency? And how long will countries like China and Russia buy American debt? "So far, according to the expert, there is no threat to the dollar as the main reserve currency of the world. The euro did not live up to its expectations, the yuan is still not a freely convertible currency. The ruble, alas, with its dependence on oil and volatility (volatility) is also unlikely to squeeze the dollar in international calculations (the Russian economy is too small and primitive). So the next 10 - 20 years, you can not see any promising competitors for the "green".

At the same time, the expert immediately recalls China, literally breathing in the back of the US economy. "China has every chance to take the place of the United States. I think that somewhere in a quarter of a century they will accumulate gold, untie the yuan and create a normal state debt market, "Vyazovsky noted..

Then the dollar and American debt obligations will have quite real competitors. From that moment, the likelihood that the US will not be anything but to devalue the dollar will begin to grow like a snowball.