The coming year will be for our country a kind of walk through the minefields. One careless step - and everything will fly up into the air. But much depends not only on our resourcefulness, but also on external risks, which will be very difficult to influence. One of the key factors on which the welfare of the Russian raw materials economy depends is the prices of black gold. So far, this has been all right: the barrel of Brent brand is marking itself at the threshold of $ 70, which provides the domestic budget with a solid income. On a short stretch, high oil prices are provided by the frosty weather in the US and Western Europe. On a more global scale, an agreement on the reduction of oil production, which the main producers of raw materials (OPEC +) have extended until the end of this year. However, very soon the OPEC + deal will cease to exist or change beyond recognition. Then the oil quotations are rolled down. By the summer, the parties to the agreement must work out a mechanism for getting out of it. After such a mechanism is ready, for sure someone will want to use it. First of all, Russia. From the fiscal point of view, high oil prices due to low production are beneficial for our country. But oil producers are not profitable, they do not want to lose their investments in the development of new fields. They actively lobby for Russia's withdrawal from the OPEC + deal, because they are confident that they will be able to make good money even at low oil prices. Oil companies have already secured the support of the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Economic Development. In the Ministry of Economic Development, they say that the decline in oil production has led to a slowdown in the growth of the domestic economy. Although earlier in the department cheap oil was called one of the reasons for the economic recession. The victory of the oil workers (if they still manage to get our country out of the agreement) will result in the defeat of Russia. The problem is that the positions of the oil companies are extremely strong, and they are quite capable of achieving the set goal. The deal OPEC + can fall apart without the participation of our country.

The United States is actively increasing shale oil production (this is promoted by high energy prices) and by the end of the year daily production of raw materials in the country can reach 11-12 million barrels. This will make the US the largest oil producer in the world. The OPEC countries will not like this, they will no longer be interested in maintaining a deal to limit production. Its break will lead to a sharp decline in oil prices, which for the Russian economy will be a strong blow. Another significant issue is the threat of imposing tough sanctions against our country. If Washington freezes the assets of individuals and companies close to the Kremlin, it will not be so bad. On the contrary, in some ways the Russian economy will benefit, because the oligarchs have the lion's share of capital exported abroad.

So it will be an excellent occasion to return earned to the country on pain of arrest. The government will lure the capitals home by issuing currency bonds. It is believed that this measure will help partly to compensate for the sanctioned foreign investors' contribution to Russian government bonds. If such a ban is introduced by the White House, then everything will be much worse for Russia. If foreigners do not invest in federal loan bonds (which is a profitable tool for them, whose yield is significantly higher than the average for the financial market), then the state will have nothing to cover the budget deficit. In addition, the ruble will fall sharply. Only exporters benefit from this, but the population as a whole expects a marked deterioration in the standard of living. The next risk is a short-sighted economic policy of the state.

Low inflation is presented as one of the main achievements of the government in 2017. In the same vein, the authorities intend to act in this, in order to consolidate success. But the price by which such a result is achieved is too high. For the sake of low inflation, economic growth is hampered. First of all, it concerns the private business, which should be the driver of growth. Companies are not given a normal credit and suffocate them with all sorts of taxes, fees and excises.

The money withdrawn from the business is only partly returned to the economy in the form of payments to state employees and pensioners. However, most of them will settle in the dugout (the current budget rule serves as proof).

Now the main priority for the government is the inflation of the National Welfare Fund. Thanks to this, he will not noticeably lose weight this year, but the economy will continue to stagnate. For ordinary citizens, this will turn into sad consequences. Most likely, real incomes of the population will fall for the fifth consecutive year.