Hanging over our country, Washington's sanctions can significantly shake the position of the ruble. In February next year it will become clear which restrictions will be imposed on the Russian economy. If the White House prohibits US investors to invest in federal loan bonds (RF), the national currency is waiting for an imminent collapse. The doctrine of banning investment in Russian debt securities already exists, it remains to give her a legal move. Moreover, in the document, financial institutions of other countries will also be recommended to refuse to purchase OFZ, the "Moskovsky Komsomolets".
Such a scenario can have extremely unpleasant consequences for the Russian Federation. Foreign investors own about a third of Russian OFZ, and if we take into account only the most liquid securities, their share can reach up to 45%. Total withdrawal of funds from the state debt of our country threatens to devalue the Russian currency to 70 rubles for $ 1 by the beginning of next spring. To keep the ruble afloat will not help even the rising oil prices, which now have crossed the $ 65 per barrel.
Holders of securities feel that the air smelled of fried, and in anticipation of unpleasant news, they gradually get rid of Russian debts. They persistently transfer their funds to dollars and euros. Because of this, in September, non-residents bought Russian government securities by almost 150 billion rubles, and in October demand fell more than 10-fold - to 14 billion rubles.
Nervousness to investors adds and negative decisions of the financial authorities of the US and Russia, which are expected to be adopted this week. Already today, on December 13, the Federal Reserve is going to raise the rate to 1.25% -1.5%, and on Friday, December 15, the Bank of Russia should drop it to 8%. Reducing the difference between US and Russian credit rates will reduce the attractiveness of domestic bonds.
Experts almost unanimously call these decisions predictable: US authorities insist on the need to tighten monetary policy, and Moscow makes loans more affordable against a record decrease in inflation. Therefore, it is likely that such changes have already been accounted for in advance in the current value of the ruble. This means that sharp exchange rate jumps will not occur, although the attractiveness of Russian bonds will further decrease, and pressure on the ruble will increase.
The Russian authorities of presence of spirit, however, do not lose. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, Maxim Oreshkin, said today that significant changes in the real ruble exchange rate are not forecasted next year:
"The ruble is near the fundamental value". According to the official, the nominal rate will depend on the situation in the markets and the behavior of the euro / dollar pair.
Meanwhile, during today's trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the ruble strengthened its position vis-a-vis the dollar and the euro. As of 11:30 $ 1 was worth 59.12 rubles, which is 16 kopecks less than yesterday's level, and 1 euro lost in price 23 kopecks and was worth 69.42 rubles.