The results of the first round of the presidential elections in France indicate that with the 99% chance that the head of the Fifth Republic will be Emmanuel Macron, not Marin Le Pen. With the name of the latter experts connect the most gloomy forecasts about the future not only of France, but of all Europe. First of all, it concerns the integrity of the EU and the single European currency.

Thus, the almost zero drop in the risk of Le Pen coming to power forced the experts to "exhale" and significantly improve the optimism of forecasts. Quite simply, analysts hastened to state that the single European currency will not disappear as a class. Moreover, according to the election results, its rate will have to grow in relation to the dollar and other major world currencies.

So, according to HSBC currency strategists, led by David Bloom, the latest developments mean a radical turning point for the euro. The forecast is based on the assumption that investors will now be able to leave fears for political change and attach more importance to the signs of economic recovery.

As a result, HSBC experts expect the euro to strengthen to $ 1.2 by the end of 2017. - at this level, the European currency was traded for the last time in early 2015.

In their opinion, henceforth the euro is now a more attractive alternative to the dollar due to the growth of political risks in the US. At the same time, they all recall that Trump never made a secret of his preference for a weak dollar.

In turn, experts in Russia are attuned on this issue is not so optimistic, believing that the euro has already taken everything it could, and no bright future for it.

"I think that Macro's victory in the elections in France is already laid in the quotes of the euro / dollar pair (if Le Pen had" secret "voters, as happened with Trump, then they would have been known already in the first round) Explained the correspondent of "Utra" vice-president of the Golden Mint Alexei Vyazovsky. - The maximum that foreign exchange market investors can count on is a small jump in the region of 1. 1".

At the same time, the expert makes it clear that the fate of the euro will be determined not by the new president of France, but by the forthcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will decide the issue of further raising interest rates in America. "If the Fed pauses in the matter of tightening monetary and credit policy, then that's exactly then we will see a" turning point for the euro, "Vyazovsky said..

And yet, it is premature to say that the danger for the EU and the euro has passed,. The fact is that the victory of the "good" Macron over the "bad" Le Pen in fact does not mean anything yet, even the departure of the latter from the political scene. But the fact of the preservation of Macron in power after some time is not at all obvious.

"Although Makron managed to work as a minister, he is new to big politics," said Alexander Vershinin, candidate of historical sciences, expert of the Center for Crisis Society Studies. - Three years ago almost no one knew about him in France. Now he will probably have to manage the country, which is in the most difficult situation for the last 60 years. The victory of Le Pen in the second round remains a purely hypothetical prospect. But, if it is realized, the scale of the shock will surpass in its scale all that France experienced after the Second World War ".

Thus, the Fifth Republic in the person of Macron risks getting to the president, whose honesty is compensated by a complete lack of understanding of how to manage a decrepit great power that preserves an extremely bad character. From this moment, actually, the most interesting begins, as France will receive as the president the second worsened edition of Francois Hollande.

"Macron, in addition, will not have a stable support in the parliament, and in France it is important, despite the fact that the country is a presidential-parliamentary republic," Vershinin said.. - Macron does not have any solid social base. And this man probably will have to take unpopular measures, many of which did not dare even Hollande, who in the last two years had nothing to lose at all. What in this situation will remain of his majority is a rhetorical question.

Not to mention the fact that Macron's foreign policy platform offers France a final oblivion as the world center of power. And this is the prospect with which the French still can not reconcile themselves ".

Is it worth it in the case of the development of the situation precisely under this scenario, is it uncompromising to believe not that in a cloudless future, but also in the expected "turning point" of the situation with the euro? Probably, it is unlikely.