The results of a recent survey conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine among bankers called the editors of ZN. UA serious doubts. The optimism of financiers beaten through the region regarding the growth of lending and mitigating the conditions for issuing loans to us somewhat divorced from reality. We decided to compare these rainbow forecasts with dry data of the official statistics of the same National Bank. The result was quite sad, but at the same time meaningful: the real picture of the credit market is very different from the one that representatives of the banking sector draw in their answers. And this difference indicates the fundamental problems of our banking system much more than it might seem at first glance.

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So, banks record an increase in business and population demand for loans, expect an increase in demand in the future and predict an increase in the volume of the loan portfolio of corporations and households in the next 12 months. This is evidenced by the results of a quarterly survey on the terms of bank lending conducted by the NBU.

According to its results, in the first quarter, the demand for business loans increased slightly, mainly for hryvnia. Moreover, in the second quarter, respondents predict an increase in demand for all types of loans for entrepreneurs.

The demand of the population for loans, according to the survey, has also increased. Separate large financial institutions noted an increase in demand for a mortgage, so that the balance of answers was the highest since the beginning of a full -scale invasion. A significant part of the respondents expects the growth of the population demand for mortgages and consumer loans and in the future.

The debt load of the business remained medium, the respondents say, and the loom of households is low. According to the survey, the banks somewhat softened the standards of lending for short -term and hryvnia business loans and expect that this trend will appear in the future. The level of approval of applications for business loans as a whole has not changed.

Credit standards for mortgages and consumer loans are already softened by four quarters in a row, also respondents plan a similar approach in the next quarter. The level of approval of applications, according to the NBU, increased for all types of loans to households.

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More banks noted a noticeable increase in foreign exchange and credit risks, as well as some increase in interest and operational risks. Bankers also look at the prospects of the results of the second quarter with optimism, predicting the growth of all types of risks, except for the operational.

But it’s curious that the results of this survey are somewhat dissonated with statistics data collected from the same NBU banks.

For example, sustainable dynamics in the corporate segment demonstrates only the lending of medium -sized businesses (see. rice. 1). Not so noticeable, literally a little, lending to large enterprises has grown. But to lend a small business, which has more risks in work, and pledges, on the contrary, are less, banks are in no hurry at all: since the beginning of 2023, the specified loan segment has not grown..

Despite this, if you look at the dynamics of interest rates on new loans, it is precisely large business that banks offer the best conditions. Nevertheless, lending to large companies, even in these conditions, is quite restrained. This can be explained by the fact that large business prefers to do with its own means without borrowing. And this is understandable, because the rates really decreased for all types of business, they are still too high: 13.9% per annum - for large companies, 16.4% for medium -sized businesses, 18.5% per annum for small ones (see. rice. 2). It is obvious that you will not take such expensive loans from a good life.

This trend is alarming: loans are most popular for up to one year. This trend was firmly fixed and does not want to unfold towards long-term lending, despite the declared optimism: in 2023, 51.6% of the issued loans were up to one year, in 2025 there are 49.6% (see. rice. 3). It is unlikely that such a meager, although positive dynamics can be seriously considered the broken trend.

It is clear that the current risks are so unprecedented that neither banks nor business are ready to think more long forecast periods. But, unfortunately, in the calm 2020, for example, the ratio of loans in terms of terms was similar.

It turns out that, despite the optimism declared by bankers, there is nothing to rejoice at all: bank loans for business and the population are still very expensive, and the growth of lending volumes that NBU notes is insignificant.

And we do not take into account the fact that a significant part of the credit segment is directly “heated” with preferential lending from the state either through the “5–7–9” program, or through the “єosel” preferential mortgage program. If these two factors are removed from the general data, the resulting picture will definitely not be in joyful colors. Conclusions suggest by itself, because economic development in the absence of wide credit support is impossible. Alas, only at the optimism of bankers to get out of the peak that our economic development includes will not come out.

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If we analyze the current situation, it becomes obvious: the business desperately needs a frank dialogue and real partnership with banks, which, unfortunately, continue to disseminate, demonstrating unreasonable optimism in reports and polls. In practice, financial institutions refrain from active extension of a loan portfolio in today's high -risk conditions. Their caution is partly explained, however, it is impossible to turn a blind eye to the fact that the banking system does not effectively perform one of its key functions - providing the economy with the necessary financial resources.

It is significant that credit rates remain exorbitantly high, and half of the loans are issued for up to a year, which does not solve the strategic tasks of the business. At the same time, a significant part of the visible increase in lending is supported artificially - through state programs of preferential financing.

It seems that the bankers simply do not notice that the economy is in a protracted crisis, and the way out of it is impossible until we continue to solve, but to silence the problems, masking them with optimistic forecasts and declarations that are not worth real actions.

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