According to Suspilny's sources in the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, the Russian Federation is intensifying measures in Transnistria: increasing mobilization readiness, reactivating weapons, establishing the production of drones and opening training centers for drone operators.

GUR analysts warn that this increases the risk of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups infiltrating the Odessa region. The regional capital, Tiraspol, is located approximately 80 km from Odessa, making the city a potential target for medium-range drone strikes deployed in Transnistria.

ISW notes that Russian forces are already striking Ukrainian rear areas at operational depths of 25 to 100 km with specialized drone units and may transfer some of these capabilities to units in Transnistria.

According to experts, the Kremlin is likely seeking to divert Ukrainian resources from the front lines, forcing them to defend against infiltrations and drone strikes in the south.. The GUR’s warning came against the backdrop of renewed Russian narratives about a “Russian Odessa” and threats of aggression against the Odessa and Nikolaev regions.

ISW analysts note that Moscow is likely preparing the conditions to justify future offensive actions in the southern region of Ukraine, but large-scale operations are still unlikely. Therefore, Russia will likely focus on asymmetric measures: limited infiltration and operational depth drone strikes.

Let us recall that Lavrov announced an allegedly reached agreement with the United States on Ukraine and new security proposals. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claims that Moscow and Washington allegedly agreed on positions on Ukraine and discussed new collective security guarantees.