The United States started a tariff war with all key trading partners supposedly to stimulate import substitution. Key partners traditionally promised the States mirror answers. There will probably be no winners in this confrontation, but the one will ultimately depend on how global trade will change, and therefore the world economy will depend on the end.

The US economy for decades has been built as an economy of services, mainly and forming it for GDP. A good model that allows you to produce products with the highest added value, to transfer to countries with cheaper work force labor -intensive production, leaving only high -profit technological at home, and even save on export duties applied exclusively to goods, and not to services. Even if the turning machines in the States really have become smaller, it is unlikely that Donald Trump is concerned about this, introducing the Dragon duties to the import of key trading partners. He knows for sure that deficit and inflation will come to the United States before laborious production return. Rather, the US president hopes that the prevailing “state” export of services that cannot be imposed duties will allow him to defeat the customs restrictions on key trading partners, imposing the necessary political decisions to them under economic pressure.

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Trump's trade policy, regardless of how much it will last, has already shown the main trading partners of the United States weak points of work in this market, which means that world trade will inevitably change. The only question is how deep these changes will be.

We will operate on the US dollar in all further calculations, so as not to get confused in the difference in courses, and we want to separately notice that the introduction of even the highest duties does not mean that imports will stop at all. Of course, a consequence of increased duties is a price increase, for example, the average price of a car in the United States, according to forecasts, can increase by $ 2500. Of course, due to high prices, the demand for imported goods will fall, and the importer will certainly reduce supplies, but they will definitely not decrease by 100%. Where, where, and in the American market there will always be a share of solvent, which will buy a favorite “Porsche” with a 25 percent duty, and with 125 percent.

Based on these introductory and securing the help of the Observator of Economic Complexity model (see. certificate), we visualized the potential annual losses from the tariff wars of Donald Trump and analyzed which of the competitors can occupy the liberated niches, which means how the supply chains in the United States and their main trading partners can change.

China, Canada, Mexico.

The current tariffs are unprecedented and, according to analysts, are the most extreme act of protectionism over the past hundred years in the United States. What Donald Trump is proud of, urging American farmers to sow as much as possible, because the demand is about to grow rapidly for their goods. Let's see….

To begin with, an increase in tariffs for Chinese imports in the United States up to 20% will most likely affect finished goods that cannot be grown during the season (see. rice. 1): equipment, computers, lighting, equipment and others.

What countries can potentially replace the listed Chinese goods in the American market? All other things being equal, Mexico, Vietnam, Canada, Germany and South Korea would win. But two of these five countries, Canada and Mexico, and now has difficult trade relations with the States.

Canadian export basket in the United States is more raw materials (see. rice. 2), but this does not simplify the task of replacing it.

Indeed, after the introduction of 25% of the duties for Canada in the US market, it could potentially replace Mexico, Saudi Arabia, China, Germany, Japan. But what is it, and there are two out of five in disgrace of the States.

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Maybe Mexico is lucky? Not particularly, for decades, the model created, in fact, joint production at the expense of Canadian raw materials, American technologies and Mexican labor made Mexico mainly a supplier of finished goods - cars, inclusive with trucks, auto parts, computers, telephones (see. rice. 3).

So the main competitors of Mexican manufacturers in the American market are companies from China and Canada, and then with a huge margin - Japan, Germany and South Korea.

US duties are a powerful blow to the economies of three main importers, together they risk losing about 1.3 trillion dollars. from reducing supplies to the States (China - $ 437 billion. , Canada - 408 billion, Mexico - $ 456 billion.

But duties for Canada, China and Mexico, according to Tax Foundation, will probably bring the United States a little over $ 100 billion. per year, or about 2% of their total tax revenues. But will also lead to the need to replace the suppliers of huge volumes of goods.

Trump volley of all guns for three key partners and at the same time the main competitors in the US market literally cleans the market for new players. That's just for what?

If not China, Canada and Mexico, then who?

Today the closest competitors of the mighty three in terms of key supplies are Japan, Germany, South Korea and Great Britain. But Japan Trump is already dissatisfied with the mysterious “killing of their currency”, that is, yen, and no matter what it means, it is Japan that analysts call the next potential victim of Trump's duties.

The tariff war of the European Union was declared at the end of February this year, so far only at the level of conversations about 25% of the duties “for cars and all that”. That it is “all that” is difficult to say, but cars are just Germany. If at the next stage, first April 5, Trump will decide to spoil the trade relations with the EU, then Germany is released.

South Korea is stomping at the exit, which also announced 25% of the duties on the main imported goods - aluminum and steel. Koreans are trying to negotiate, even sent a specialized minister to Washington, but so far to no avail.

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So among those who could theoretically benefit from Trump’s trade war with the main suppliers, only the UK remains. It is the least to her now, but for a very simple reason - it is not a leading importer in any of the sectors of the American economy, and at the cost of its share in the total import of the United States is about 2%. Yes, for Britain the United States is a huge market for primarily cars, drugs, other transport, electrical equipment and in much smaller volumes - oil products. But she cannot physically fill out all the released niches, because she simply does not produce the necessary volumes for sale.

EU, more precisely, Germany.

The EU will be easier because in fact its main market, more than 70%, are EU countries. Actually, the union was created to trade, and not to fight. The share of the United States in the export of the European Union is about 8%, and the share of the states in European imports is generally less than 6%.

In fact, in the whole EU there is only one country that can really feel the consequences of a cooling in relations between Washington and Brussels - this is already mentioned Germany. In Fig. 4 is visible the abyss between Germany, which accounts for a quarter of all the exports of the EU, and the rest of the largest exporters of the Union. Germany is also the main importer, it is there that 21% of all EU imported goods are going there.

Well, if the promised 25% of the duties for the import of German cars, this import article will decrease by $ 10.5 billion. If in the mysterious Trumpovskoye “all that” will include auto parts, then minus $ 2.85 billion. And everything else? The rest of the German exports to the United States are medicines, medical equipment, vaccines and such specific medical products as “blood, anti -items, toxins and bio -culture”. Almost all non -automatic export from Germany, in one way or another, applies to the sensitive to stable supply of the healthcare sector. That is why, most likely, Trump will not go further than car barriers.

Will there be a painful partial loss of the American market for German car manufacturers? Yes, because it is their largest imported market, but prudent Germans never put all eggs in one basket. In general, they annually sell to the world of cars for $ 174 billion. and specifically the United States - 24 billion. This is a large reliable sales market from a huge number of other markets mastered by the Germans, since China buys German cars by $ 16 billion. , Great Britain - 15.6 billion, France - for 11.4 billion, Italy - $ 11 billion. , and so, until the countries end, because the Germans supply the car to everyone. And they will not lose all 14% of American supplies, and about half, “scatter” them in a year or two between other markets is a completely feasible task.

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According to the Kiel Institute forecast, the EU losses from 25% of duties on all, not only automobile, export in the United States can reduce European exports by 15-17%, respectively, in the short term, lead to a reduction in the Union GDP by 0.4%. EU will cope even better with the introduction of mirror duties on American export. Of course, the losses will be tangible, more than 92 billion dollars. , or minus a quarter of current supplies in money, but from total imports it is only 1.4%. Be that as it may, but if at 70% you provide yourself with goods of your own production, then customs wars are easier.

To “win”, the United States will have to go beyond the duties and limit its own export of services (mainly IT, telecommunication and financial), reaching 35% ($ 430 billion. ) from all imported EU services from countries that are not included in the Union. Their volume is twice the export of services from the EU to the United States, and most importantly, it is difficult for them to find an appropriate analogue. It is this blow that will really be painful for Brussels. But so far such thoughts in Washington have not been voiced. Technically, this is easy, but politically much more difficult, because American technohigants who would not want to lose a market of 450 million people actively helped re -election Trump.

That the United States will lose if duties are introduced against them?

But in the case of the introduction of mirror duties, three main trading partners in the United States feel much more confident. Let me remind you that in total China, Canada and Mexico risk losing about 1.3 trillion dollars. In the export in the USA. While the states from reducing supplies to these countries will lose half as much - 662 billion dollars.

For the United States, the rise in price of deliveries to China will result in a loss of at least $ 154 billion. First of all, in the Chinese market, a place for suppliers of raw oil, soybeans, cars, aircraft, helicopters and microcircuits will be freeed (see see. rice. 5). For groups of goods, which will have the greatest reduction in US supply, in the Chinese market, Japan will most likely be replaced (+10.4 billion dollars. ), Germany (+10.4 billion), South Korea (+8.38 billion), Brazil (+6.83 billion), France (+3.92 billion) and, of course, Russia (+3.8 billion dollars.

If Mexico sore duties on American imports, the United States will lose more than 240 billion dollars in money. on supplies to a southern neighbor. Mainly due to the reduction in the sale of oil products and liquefied gas (see. rice. 6). Who can replace them among the countries that have already laid the track to the Mexican market? First of all, China (+23.7 billion dollars. To the current volumes of imports), the Netherlands (+10.5 billion), the same Canada (+8.75 billion), Germany (+8.26 billion) and Japan (+6.71 billion dollars.

Comparable to the Mexican ones will be US loss in the event of a tariff restriction of their imports in Canada - about $ 268 billion. Mainly due to fuel, cars and auto parts (see. rice. 7). China will be able to replace the United States in this market (+23.3 billion dollars. ), Mexico (+13.6 billion), Germany (+8.99 billion), Netherlands (+6.56 billion) and Japan (+6.47 billion dollars.

As you can see, possible profits from the fact that the main American trading partners will begin to replace the United States in each other's markets are incomparable with their losses in the American market. Even the PRC, which in a stronger position, will lose four hundred billion more than it will work, replacing the United States.

In fact, this once again emphasizes the stability of the current economic model of the United States compared to partners, but in no way explains what this sustainable model does not suit the new American power. In the end, this is the main lesson that world trade from the tariff war that has begun by the United States will endure. Further segmentation of the global markets is inevitable, and with it the capsulation of European trade, diversification of German markets and a bold emphasis on the technological development and production of services in the economies of the first world. These are non -fast transformations, but those who pass them will definitely not regret.

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What will Trump get in return? Simplified, his economic policy seeks to increase the production of everyday demand in the United States. Indeed, from the table it is clear that Mexico, Canada and Korea has extremely favorable conditions for trade with the United States, and at least in these cases the desire to limit almost one hundred percent, duty -free trade is justified. Other countries are in tangibly worst conditions, but in their regard, the US tariff policy cannot be called a strict, which means a profitable state.

Preliminary separate tariff indicators of the US trade and main trading partners.

Partner.

Tariffs, environments. meaning. Taking into account the volume of trade, %.

Share of duty -free tariff lines, %.

Share of duty -free tariffs in the most assistance mode, %.

Canada.

0.12.

98.29.

38.91.

China.

2.86.

38,12.

38,12.

Germany.

1.65.

38.34.

38.34.

United Kingdom.

1.32.

37.57.

37.57.

Japan.

1.58.

39,14.

37.24.

Korea.

0.01.

98.90.

37.47.

Mexico.

0.01.

99.95.

37.09.

However, if you do not have a supplier’s outstretched hand for replacement (but not), then the inflationary crisis and deficiency of individual goods in the short term are guaranteed. In the long run, import restrictions can really stimulate internal production. But with sufficient time and investments. The time here is fundamental, because all the years of transformation, the US authorities will live under the permanent pressure of local business, which is not enthusiastic about the current experiments - look at how the American stock market fees recently. So, most likely, patience in the States will burst earlier, and instead of the desired import substitution, only a point inflation crisis with a return to previous practices will be obtained.

Certificate ZN. UA.

Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) Tariffs uses an expanded and revised version of a bilateral communication model.

This is an expanded model that combines information about current export and imports on countries and products, the distance between countries, their GDP and the population, indicators of cultural and geographical similarities (for example, common language, general boundaries) and related indicators that record the overpowing between geographical neighbors and related products. The developers evaluated the model using millions of bilateral trade records over the past ten years, and confirmed the stability of their coefficients, checking their stability in models taught on the basis of data for different periods of time. The model shows only the influence of tariffs applied to one exporter, and also considers trade as such, without allocating supplies aimed at domestic production.

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