The end of 2024 was marked by an extraordinary event, a real “black swan” - the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. It’s hard to believe that Turkiye and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham initially set themselves the goal of overthrowing the Assad regime. The main role in the operation was played by fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the involvement of the Syrian National Army (SNA) completely controlled by Turkey in the operation was insignificant, and Turkey itself and its armed forces did not provide direct support, although in 2019 Turkish troops, artillery. By the way, even before the fall of Aleppo, analytical resources disseminated information that supposedly HTS intended to reach the 2019 demarcation line and the main battles were taking place near Serakib, south of Aleppo. And there, in the first days of the operation, Assad’s army offered resistance, but no one could have foreseen the flight of the army to Aleppo and the rapid fall of the second largest city. And it happened, followed by a cascading collapse of the entire structure on which the regime stood for half a century.

Could events in Syria trigger a cascading collapse of other regimes created or supported by the Russians Even before the events in Syria, in mid-November, an unexpected crisis occurred in pro-Russian Abkhazia. The president of the unrecognized republic of Bzhaniya resigned after the outbreak of mass protests due to dissatisfaction of the local population and business with the signing of an investment agreement with the Russian Federation. An unexpected manifestation of disloyalty on the part of a pro-Russian quasi-state... At the very beginning of 2025, another quasi-state entity, Transnistria, also faced problems. The energy crisis in the PMR may provoke a sharp increase in public discontent or individual influential groups, which may no longer rely on the support of Russia, but rely on other forces, in Ukraine or Moldova. After all, it is already obvious that Russian troops in the PMR are isolated and the Russian Federation is not even capable of organizing gas supplies there. Geographically and politically, the PMR is isolated from the Russian Federation.

Another and perhaps the most obvious candidate for reprising the role of Assad is Alexander Lukashenko. Presidential elections will be held in Belarus on January 26. The date of the elections is one of the most interesting moments associated with them, since the time of their holding was shifted to the period when Lukashenko’s powers were still in force, although previously they were planned to be held in the summer. That is, Lukashenko was afraid to allow even a formal and short period without him confidently retaining power in his hands. Now the election campaign is unusually quiet even for Belarus. It’s hard to even call this an imitation of democracy, like what we saw last year in the Russian Federation. Belarusian opposition analysts are generally considering the option, perhaps based on some of their sources in Minsk, that the candidates will simply withdraw their candidacies and votes will be transferred in favor of Lukashenka. Ostensibly voluntarily, but in fact according to the dictator’s orders. This scenario looks quite realistic, the question is what Lukashenko was afraid of? Maybe the arrival of Trump? It’s not for nothing that in his commentary on Trump’s inauguration, Lukashenko criticized Trump’s harsh rhetoric towards Biden. I'm really nostalgic for the previous administration in the White House..

The shaking of dictatorships is certainly coming, as evidenced by the Trump administration’s attacks on the Venezuelan dictator Maduro, the comments of that Musk and the new Secretary of State Pompeo. Axios sources from the administration even report that Washington is not against Maduro being neighbors with Assad. The overthrow of the regime in Venezuela, friendly to China, Russia and Iran, will allow the United States to establish its own control over the world's largest oil reserves and take control of the flow of migrants, because the bulk of these migrants on the US-Mexico border, with whom the Republicans have undertaken to fight, are precisely Venezuelans.

And where there is regime change in Venezuela and the return of the Panama Canal, there is a solution to the issue with the anti-American regimes in Nicaragua and Cuba. The latter, by the way, Trump has already managed to return to the list of countries sponsoring terrorism.. Considering that the Trump administration intends to reduce energy prices, the regimes in Venezuela, Iran and Russia will be the first to suffer, losing income, and even their satellites will have their rations of loans and subsidies cut. Could 2025 be the year regimes fall Considering the factors above - definitely yes.