Last week, pro-Ukrainian militant groups broke through the border in southwest Russia, starting two days of the most intense fighting on Russian soil in the last 15 months of the war.. However, Vladimir Putin publicly completely ignored this event..

He handed out medals, met with the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, hosted friendly foreign leaders, and had a televised small talk with a Russian judge about Ukraine not being a real country..

“Managing Russia’s biggest war in generations, Putin is becoming more and more like an absentee commander-in-chief: in public, he says almost nothing about the course of the war and does not show much concern about Russian failures.. But he makes it clearer than ever that his strategy is to wait out resistance from Ukraine and the West.. He thinks he can win by exhausting his enemies,” writes the New York Times.

“Don’t have any illusions,” said Natalia Zubarevich, an expert on Russia’s socio-economic development at Moscow State University..

At home, she said, Putin laid the groundwork for continuing the war for a " But while Western analysts and officials believe that Putin's Russia has the potential to continue the war, his military, economic and political room for maneuver has narrowed, creating obstacles to waging a protracted war..

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Despite Putin calling the fighting a distant " As the West vows to continue ditching Russian energy.

On the battlefield, Russia's offensive capability waned as ammunition ran out and the months-long battle for the town of Bakhmut claimed thousands of soldiers' lives.. Yevgeny Prigozhin, who controls the Wagner mercenaries, said he was starting to withdraw his fighters from Bakhmut, at the same time uttering one swearing tirade after another against Russian elites loyal to the Kremlin.

For a massive new offensive, Western officials and analysts say Putin needs to find new sources of munitions and conduct a politically risky second military draft to replenish his depleted forces.. Yet U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes told Congress this month that the chances of Putin making concessions in negotiations this year are "

Western officials are also concerned about the possibility of him resorting to nuclear weapons, but believe the risk is greatest if Putin suffers a catastrophic defeat that threatens his power..

The Russian economy has been flexible enough to adapt to Western sanctions, and there have been enough state reserves to finance large military spending and increase social benefits.. But the longer the war drags on, especially if oil prices fall, the more likely the Kremlin will be forced to make a difficult choice: cut government spending or let inflation run..

“From a political standpoint, some researchers argue that public support for the war in Russia is broad but not deep, prone to change rapidly in response to unpredictable events.. This week's cross-border incursion has brought war into Russia itself in a way that hasn't been seen before, and has raised concerns among war bloggers with a broad audience..

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And then there is the “unpredictable card” of Prigozhin turning into a populist politician who is fighting the highest-level Russian officials and who this week has been sharply critical of the West’s wait-and-see strategy.. In an hour-long interview, Prigozhin called the “optimistic scenario” unlikely, according to which “Europe and America will get tired of the Ukrainian conflict, China will put everyone at the negotiating table, and we will agree that everything that we have already captured is ours”. A more likely scenario, he said, is that Ukraine pushes Russian troops back to pre-war lines and jeopardizes Russian control of Crimea, the crown jewel of Putin’s takeover of Ukrainian lands..

Western Analysts and Officials Doubt Ukraine's Future Counteroffensive Could Deal a Knockout Blow. At the same time, they say Russia's ability to wage war is steadily deteriorating, as evidenced by tens of thousands of casualties in Bakhmut and a sharp decrease in the number of rounds fired by Russian troops per day in eastern Ukraine compared to the height of last year's fighting..

“It cannot be said that the Russians will suddenly cease to be able to wage war. The question is whether they can do it with a certain intensity,” said former US State Department official Max Bergmann, who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington..

But Putin defies any public sense of urgency. He remains isolated in his pandemic-era cocoon, requiring Russians who meet him to undergo multi-day quarantines.. The cosmonaut, who was awarded on Tuesday at a medal ceremony in the Kremlin, began his speech by saying: “Sorry, we were silent for a whole week in isolation.”.

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Putin rarely goes into details of the course of the war, even during a lengthy meeting on interethnic relations.. The discussion was so banal that one Armenian public leader told Putin that his group sent 300,000 chocolate bars with raisins and nuts to eastern Ukraine.. He often speaks of the war he started as something out of his control.. In a televised address to businessmen on Friday, he spoke of " This week, he kept quiet about the dramatic invasion of Russian territory.. Although in March, when a smaller similar event took place, he canceled his trip and denounced the episode as a "

When Putin discusses Ukraine, his remarks are loaded with a disfigured story, as if he wants to tell the world that no matter what happens on the ground, Russia is doomed to control the neighboring country.. On Tuesday, the Kremlin released a video of Putin's meeting with Valery Zorkin, head of Russia's Constitutional Court.. He brought with him a copy of the 17th century French map of Europe..

“There is no Ukraine on this map,” Zorkin told the Russian president.

Then, in the video, Putin falsely claims that before the formation of the USSR, “there has never been any Ukraine in the history of mankind.”. Some Russian officials are already looking ahead to next year's US presidential election, hinting that a Republican victory could change the situation.. Former Russian President and Security Council Vice Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said this week that it is "

Former President Donald Trump, who remains frontrunner in the Republican presidential nomination race, is a " But Putin's wait-and-see attitude is connected not only with the possibility of Ukraine's breakthrough on the battlefield.. Carnegie Eurasia Center Senior Fellow Tatyana Stanovaya says Putin's "

“Russian elites tend to see defeat in inaction. Already now it is difficult for Putin to explain what exactly he is waiting for,” she wrote this month..

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The longevity of Russian public support for the war—and the economic stability that helps keep it going—is far from guaranteed.. But some researchers and US officials believe cracks in pro-war sentiment are already beginning to show because of heavy casualties..

A recent report by a group of Russian sociologists, based on dozens of interviews, argues that Russians see war as a "

“This support is not based on fundamental political positions or any ideological views.. It's not stable support,” says Sasha Kappinen, one of the report's authors, who uses a pseudonym for security reasons because she works at a university in Russia.

Since the beginning of the war, Russia has spent a lot of money to reassure the public by increasing social benefits and easing the burden on small businesses.. Its economy has adapted to the sanctions, benefiting from numerous countries outside of North America and Western Europe continuing to trade briskly with Russia.. According to Moscow-based economic development expert Natalia Zubarevich, the government can keep spending at current levels until at least next March's presidential election, when Putin, 70, is expected to run for a fifth term.. But falling oil prices could force the government to cut spending on things like infrastructure..

“Two sacred cows are state defense purchases and support for low-income segments of the population, as well as pensioners. These expenses will be kept as long as possible,” she said, referring to the need to satisfy key electoral groups..

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At the same time, analysts and Russians who know Putin still see him as fundamentally flexible and opportunistic, a man who would probably agree to a freeze on hostilities if offered, even if he is preparing to fight for years.. Therefore, people with connections in Moscow are looking to an unpredictable future, preparing for a prolonged war..

“Putin’s range of options is quite wide: from a ceasefire today to waging a hundred-year war,” an unnamed Moscow businessman told the publication..