The Guardian: Germany's repositioning is now critical to war in Ukraine, and here's why

16 May 2023, 21:09 | Peace
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Unlike British or French politicians, Olaf Scholz does not resort to pomposity. Like a charm. A man who rolls his eyes when he tries to smile, the German chancellor greeted the Ukrainian president in Berlin on Sunday with characteristic inflexibility..

However, of all of Volodymyr Zelenskiy's meetings with European leaders over the past few days - from Rome to Paris, and before meeting Rishi Sunak in the UK - his day in Germany may be remembered as the most important.. The announcement on the eve of his visit of a doubling of military assistance to Ukraine to a total amount of more than 5 billion euros finally brought Germany out of cold relations.

“The consequences may be visible on the battlefield months later, but in geostrategic terms they have happened now,” writes Chatham House chief executive John Kampfner in an article for The Guardian..

He is convinced that Ukraine has only 6-7 months to launch a counter-offensive to oust Russia from the territories it was able to occupy in 2022, or even from the regions under its control since 2014.. And Zelensky, most likely, is well aware of this.. Success would also demonstrate to the West the effectiveness of the support it has given Kyiv so far.. The Ukrainian President knows that if he cannot complete this work this year, he will have to continue next year.. But the conditions will be even more difficult.

“He sees how the Chinese, the French and others are resorting to diplomacy that does not necessarily meet the conditions of Ukraine. At the same time, Zelenskiy is aware that public opinion is teetering in some countries.. And above all, he sees the clumsy figure of Donald Trump appearing on the horizon.. The very prospect of returning to the White House a man who cannot say which side he supports plays into the hands of Vladimir Putin, the extreme right and extreme left forces in Europe, which put the vague concept of “peace” above international law, self-determination and human rights, ”.

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This is why the debate in Europe, and in Germany in particular, is so important. Germans are being told they should bear their share of the responsibility, not brag about their advantages.. They are proud of Vergangenheitsbewaltigung - coming to terms with their past.. However, in recent years, some segments of society, including Scholz's social democrats, have learned one false lesson.. These " The horrific invasion of Iraq reinforced that belief..

The events in Ukraine destroyed it, returning the concept of “correct war” alien for several generations.. But it took two pushes.. The first was the Zeitenwende, Scholz's speech three days after Putin's invasion, in which he announced a new approach to hard power and an additional €100bn to be spent on bolstering the ailing German Armed Forces..

Having abruptly broken the mold, the German chancellor took up the old ways, weighing every step and fearing the reaction of his party. Relations became so toxic that Kyiv refused to receive German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier at the last moment.. Zelensky accepted everyone, but not the Germans, who complained that they were not receiving due recognition for being one of the largest donors of military aid.

“The problem was that this help was offered reluctantly and was slow,” explains the author..

Tensions peaked in autumn due to delays in deliveries of German-made Leopard 2 tanks.. Scholz not only refused to send them, but also delayed the issuance of licenses for re-export to Ukraine from other countries. In the end, he relented, arguing that his position forced the Americans to also hand over tanks to Kyiv..

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Why did Germany change its attitude and is it forever Kampfner points to several factors that have transformed relations between Germany and Ukraine in recent months.. One of them is the appointment of Boris Pistorius, the first Minister of Defense in many years, who has begun to embody the transformation necessary to turn the FRG into the main military force that NATO wants it to be..

Speaking at a conference last week, one of Germany's leading diplomats, Thomas Bagger, said: " Announcing a new €3bn package for Ukraine, Pistorius said: “Germany will provide all the assistance it can and for as long as it takes.”.

“People from Scholz’s entourage claim that if he were more adventurous, he would not have been able to enlist the support of the German people.. Meanwhile, his foreign ministry, and now his defense ministry, are showing great determination not only towards Russia, but also in dealing with the increasingly difficult dilemma of China as a business opportunity and security threat..

On Sunday evening, Zelensky was in the beautiful medieval city of Aachen, where he received the Charlemagne Award for Merit to Europe.. In front of an audience of luminaries, he spoke not only about the war, but also about Ukraine's place in the EU.



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“That is why, if – and this remains a huge “if” – Ukraine wins the war, its biggest goal will be to join the EU.. And the role of Germany (as well as France and Poland) will be key. The UK will unfortunately not be at the negotiating table. As for Scholz, whenever Zelenskiy addressed him warmly in a speech (“my friend Olaf”), the chancellor seemed to fuss nervously with headphones or a tie.. He may not know how to behave like a human being, but he is the most important person that Ukrainians will have to deal with,” Kampfner writes..




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