WP: Ukraine will not be invited to NATO at the Vilnius summit, but the allies are considering alternative steps

15 May 2023, 15:58 | Peace
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NATO Allies are negotiating to determine the next steps for Ukraine towards NATO membership as Allies struggle to overcome differences over how quickly Kiev can be brought under a transatlantic security shield at a time of bitter hostilities with Russia..

Discussions intensified weeks before U.S. President Joe Biden and other NATO leaders meet in Vilnius to approve plans to strengthen defenses against Russia, which undermined decades of relative stability in Europe with its 2022 invasion of Ukraine..

Representatives of NATO countries, many of whom spoke on condition of anonymity so as not to divulge sensitive diplomatic discussions, said there was a consensus among the 31 Allied countries that, despite Kiev's calls, NATO would not issue an official invitation to Ukraine to join the meetings 11.

But the countries of Eastern Europe are pushing for concrete steps towards this goal, including potential commitments regarding the timetable for Ukraine's accession.. Meanwhile, the US and some Western European countries are pushing for smaller steps, which could include a bureaucratic modernization of the NATO-Ukraine council or a decision to further expand NATO's technical support for Ukraine's defense sector..

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Despite the difficulties associated with admitting the country in the midst of a major war, Ukraine believes that NATO " This is not enough,” Galibarenko said..

The lack of agreement among NATO members, 15 years after the US led the push to say Ukraine would eventually join the Alliance, highlights the risks such moves could entail at a sensitive moment in the West's standoff with Russia.. It also highlights the potential for long-term challenges within NATO, despite the cohesion that has come as a response to Russian aggression.. President Vladimir Putin has long cited the progressive inclusion of former Soviet republics into NATO since the end of the Cold War as a threat to Russia's security..

Tuuli Duneton of the Estonian Ministry of Defense said the Vilnius summit was an opportunity to send a strong signal to Ukraine.

“That after all the suffering they have endured, their place is in NATO, and we will be glad to see them there,” he explained.

Officials in the Baltic states have suggested that NATO, in addition to repeating the 2008 announcement of Ukrainian accession, give Ukraine a formal invitation to membership in Vilnius sometime in the indefinite future, or begin the process of establishing time frames and specific conditions for membership, even if it will take longer to acquire due to the war. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipovsky said his " On the eve of the summit, he said, the “level of political will” is being discussed on how to move forward quickly..

Countries supporting quick action argue that granting membership contingent on Ukraine's ability to fend off a full-scale Russian invasion effectively gives Putin veto power.. This is not the message the Alliance wants to send..

They say history shows that only membership, not the promise of membership, can deter Russia from using force.. Months after NATO announced in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia might join, Putin sent Russian troops to seize Georgian territory.. Ukraine's slow steps towards NATO membership also did not stop Putin from illegally seizing Crimea in 2014 and a full-scale invasion last year..

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In a recent essay for Foreign Affairs, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for swift action and said that Ukraine has proven its readiness over the past 18 months.

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But unlike in 2008, it is the US, along with other powerful allies in Western Europe, that prefers a slower and more cautious approach.. U.S. officials say the Biden administration prefers NATO nations prioritize sustained battlefield support for Ukraine as it prepares for a long-awaited counteroffensive.. They see membership and potential security guarantees as issues to be resolved in a final settlement of the war..

“At this stage, we should focus on practical support and how we can best continue the security assistance we are providing to Ukraine,” a senior US official told reporters in Brussels last month..

“This is now the main political challenge,” he added, arguing that the broader political relationship between NATO and Ukraine after the end of the conflict will be “somewhat contentious unless we have absolute guarantees that we can continue to provide security assistance.”.

Highly fearful countries point out that admitting Ukraine while it is at war with Russia could automatically trigger Article 5 on NATO Allies' Joint Defense. And this will involve the North Atlantic Alliance in a serious conflict with the largest nuclear state in the world.. Rapid steps towards membership could also force Putin to intensify his campaign against Ukraine..

One Eastern European official said there was a "

When Russia launched a full-scale invasion, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg often spoke of support for Ukraine's membership in the Alliance, but did not offer any specifics on when and how this could happen.. Last month, he urged NATO countries to focus on further assistance “because without a sovereign independent Ukraine there is no point in discussing membership.”.

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Although the US-led NATO countries have provided Kiev with billions of dollars worth of weapons since the invasion, the alliance itself has not done so in an attempt to refute Putin's claim that the Alliance is acting as an aggressor.. Despite differences of opinion, officials stressed the importance of showing solidarity as Ukraine tries to take the strongest position possible in possible talks with Russia..

“The goal before Vilnius is to reach an agreement that demonstrates unity and tangible support for Ukraine, maintains an open door policy and demonstrates progress towards membership, while respecting the concerns of some member countries,” said one British diplomat..

Tuuli Duneton of the Estonian Ministry of Defense noted that the ability of the Alliance to maintain unity is "

The area of \u200b\u200bagreement among most NATO countries is the importance of completing the entry of Sweden as the 32nd member of the Alliance after many months of delay due to the position of Turkey and Hungary.

In addition to the road map, Ukraine insists on more practical cooperation. According to Galibarenko, among her priorities are the creation of a modern, NATO-compatible air and missile defense architecture, the creation of a system for the medical rehabilitation of wounded military personnel, as well as the development of a national demining system.. Finally, in her opinion, NATO membership will be in the interests of the Alliance itself..

“Without Ukraine, it is impossible to ensure the strength of the eastern flank of NATO. Just as Finland and Sweden will strengthen the northern flank of NATO, Ukraine will ensure the security of Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region,” she said..



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William Taylor served as US ambassador to Kyiv in 2008 when NATO made its announcement on Ukraine and Georgia. As a token of US support, President George W. Bush stopped in Kyiv on his way to the NATO summit in Bucharest. Unlike now, only a minority of Ukrainians backed joining NATO.. Even though more than a decade has passed, Taylor said the war and Ukraine's decisive moves against Russia make its long-awaited NATO membership more likely than ever..

" The only question was when,” the American diplomat said..




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