Nearly half of foreign policy experts believe Russia will fail or collapse before 2033. At the same time, most expect China to try to take over Taiwan by brute force in the coming years..

This, according to the Financial Times, is evidenced by a new survey among experts on the challenges of the next decade, which was conducted by the Atlantic Council think tank.. 46% of 167 respondents answered that the collapse of Russia or its disintegration could happen in the next 10 years.

Also, answering a separate question, 40% indicated that Russia could fall apart due to “revolution, civil war or political disintegration”.

“Ukraine clearly indicates the possibility of internal problems in Russia, and also that war as such can boomerang not only on the Russian authorities, but on the entire country,” said Peter Engelke, deputy director of the Atlantic Council who participated in the development of the survey..

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Western officials say 11-month-old invasion of Ukraine has greatly weakened Russia. In particular, sanctions and export controls played a role in this.. Economists are convinced that Russia's production capabilities are gradually degrading as a result of punitive measures, throwing the country back several decades in development. Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun publicly admitting that Moscow is failing in Ukraine and the conflict will continue for a long time to come.. The US and Western allies have pledged to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.. All parties are making plans with the knowledge that the Russian war against Ukraine will continue for years.

Even though Europe is facing its biggest land conflict since World War II, the majority of experts interviewed said they do not believe in a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO in the next 10 years.. At the same time, 70% of respondents agreed with US warnings that China could try to seize Taiwan in the coming years.. The US military believes that this could happen in 2027 on the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PRC.. However, some officials last year began to speak more uneasily about Beijing's intentions, suggesting that the invasion could begin before 2024..