The commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, Martin Herem, believes that the West should focus not only on Ukraine's victory in the war, but also prepare for the next Russian aggression directed against the eastern flank of NATO, the Baltic countries. In his column for ERR, he writes that such a scenario should be considered, given that after losing in Ukraine, the Kremlin will want revenge and revenge..
Herem noted that the three Baltic countries, together with Poland, Britain and the United States, are the states that help Ukraine the most.. However, the last of them are "
Moreover, although the losses of the Russian Federation in the war among equipment and personnel are colossal, the aggressor "
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“Thousands of tanks, combat vehicles, armored personnel carriers and artillery pieces are in Russian warehouses, many of which may not be in working order or outdated.. However, for every three or four units, they can definitely put together one working copy,"
Russian factories, he continued, even before switching to a military railroad, produce almost two million shells a year..
At the same time, Kherem writes that the Russian stockpiles of missiles for the S-300 MLRS are only 10% exhausted, the occupying aircraft lost only 10%, and the fleet lost even less.. (It should be noted that officials in the EU, the US and Ukraine believe that the losses of the Russian Federation are more extensive, and recently our intelligence generally stated that the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation has turned into a coast guard.
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Herem believes that the war of the Russian Federation against the Baltic countries may begin in a few years. At the same time, he recalls that the length of the Estonian-Russian border is more than 200 km, its length between Russia and Latvia is somewhat less..
" For an ordinary person, including for trained reservists, what difference does it make, in front of him is a T-62 or T-72, infantry fighting vehicle or MTLB, self-propelled guns or towed 152-mm howitzers, 100,000 professional soldiers or conscripts with a year of training, and to Tallinn? What difference does it make for residents of Johvi, Tartu or Voru which rocket, carrying at least 100 kg of explosives, will hit them?
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The military notes that Russia, given its current military resource and the pace of artillery production, can fire 166 shells per 1 km of front every day for a month, that is, fire more than 66,000 shells per day along the entire 400-kilometer front.
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\; we still need weapons, ammunition and the ability to use them against the advancing mass,"
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According to Herem, the only way for the West to avoid a new war is to prepare so that the Russian Federation does not have the desire to attack.
" Secondly, we are at home. Thirdly, our preparation is better. Fourth, we have a superior high-tech capability that we share with our allies,"