Like many observers, the FT got it wrong in its biggest 2022 prediction yet.. While we have acknowledged that we may be wishful thinking, our Europe editor Ben Hall suggested last year that Vladimir Putin has no rational reason to invade Ukraine.. Logic, unfortunately, did not become an obstacle to the catastrophic adventure of the Russian leader. If last year we hoped that war could be avoided, then Tony Barber is pessimistic about the chances of a long-term ceasefire in 2023. And David Sheppard generally predicts there will be blackouts across Europe as Moscow cuts natural gas exports.. With rising concerns, this year we are again asking if China will invade Taiwan, adding the possibility of a blockade..
Overall, five FT forecasts for 2022 fell short. We made a mistake when we called the end of the \; Tesla shares plunge, thanks in part to Elon Musk's Twitter antics; Democrats retain US Senate. We invalidated Clive Cookson's prediction of a more contagious Covid variant than Omicron, although sub-variants have emerged and China's reopening has raised new concerns.
Now - readers' predictions about the upcoming 2023.
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
No. Conditions for a lengthy ceasefire, let alone a formal peace settlement, are unlikely to be met in 2023. Freezing current positions will not satisfy either Russia or Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's Kremlin could not have broken Ukraine's independence or even fully controlled the four regions it " President Volodymyr Zelensky cannot accept a ceasefire that leaves Ukraine with no territory lost since Russia's invasion in February, in addition to occupied Donbas and Crimea seized in 2014. The return of these territories will require weapons that the West does not seem to want to supply.. Russia is trying to regroup and prepare its people for a long war. The most likely is the continuation of the conflict.
Will there be blackouts in Europe?
Yes. This could happen before April if the weather is cold enough, but next winter is a bigger problem.. Although the gas storages are now close to full, replenishing them in the spring will not be easy.. In 2022, Russian gas flows were virtually untouched until June; in 2023 they will be close to zero. Liquefied natural gas will struggle to cover the deficit. This risk is offset by Europe's reverse transition from gas to coal. France's nuclear plants should have fewer maintenance issues. But the energy system has been on a roll for 18 months.. The risk of something breaking is increasing. David Sheppard.
Will global temperatures hit a temporary warming threshold of 1.5C?
No, but it could happen as early as 2024. The planet has already warmed by about 1.1C when comparing 2011-20 average temperatures to those of the late 1800s, and by at least 1.2C in recent individual years.. Given record levels of emissions, scientists are betting 50:50 that temperatures will temporarily reach 1.5C in at least one year in 2022-26. As the cooling of La Nina is expected to last until early 2023, forecasters believe that the average temperature for the whole year will be 1.2C, but this may change in the coming years.. One year with a temperature of 1.5C will not mean that the goal of the Paris Agreement has been violated, but will significantly bring the world closer to it. Pilita Clark.
Will the Fed start cutting interest rates
No. The market expects the federal funds rate to peak at 4.9 percent in the first half of 2023 before falling to 4.7 percent in September and 4.4 percent in December. However, the vast majority of members of the Open Market Committee believe that the rate will end in 2023 at or above 5 percent.. This last prediction will prove to be correct.. As Fed Chairman Jay Powell warned in November, “History strongly warns against premature policy easing.. We'll stay the course until the job is done" The Fed does not want to repeat the mistake of complacency. Martin Wolf.
Will Rishi Sunak remain British Prime Minister by the end of the year
Yes, although he looks more and more beleaguered. PM wants to hold out until 2024 before calling elections, but is threatened by right-wing ideologues and apostates. His ruthless Conservative Party has replaced four prime ministers since the Brexit vote in 2016 - two in the last year.. Sunak is a more resilient character than Boris Johnson or Liz Trouss, but his troops, faced with likely electoral defeat, could become even more volatile and politically self-damaging. They can break his lead below the waterline even if they don't want to.. Miranda Green.
Will the ECB use its new support to contain spreads on Italian or other bonds
No. After President Christine Lagarde's recent hawkish sentiment, markets now expect ECB rate hike endpoint to be higher than expected. Rate hikes, recession and quantitative tightening will put pressure on peripheral bond yields. However, the criteria for triggering a tailor-made transmission protection tool remains complex and subjective, and the ECB could use existing bond programs or limit QT first to stop any spread explosion.. The Italian government, led by the hard-right Georgia Meloni, has also been more prudent financially than expected so far.. Of course things can change quickly. Tej Parikh.
Will Joe Biden run for president again
Yes. The age of the president cannot be ignored: Biden will be 81 by the 2024 election, and 82 by the 2025 inauguration. But don't rule out the possibility of running just yet.. After a successful year of passing legislation and a better-than-expected midterm Democratic performance, Biden is still likely the Democrats' best chance of holding onto the White House.; Vice President Kamala Harris struggles to build her profile. But that doesn't mean other Democrats aren't looking into running in 2024.. Courtney Weaver.
Will Donald Trump be charged
Yes. There are at least four areas where the former president faces potential investigation: Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election results, his possession of classified documents in Mar-a-Lago, his pressure on Georgia state officials to find " The first two cases are in the hands of Jack Smith, a special counsel appointed in November who has subpoenaed officials in seven states.. Based on what has already become public, prosecutors in at least one of these investigations will likely find that there is enough evidence to bring charges - which Trump will no doubt deny and challenge in court.. Edward Luce.
Can China Restore Growth Over 5 Percent
Yes. China expects a grim 2022 finale; a move away from his " But a lot can and will change during this year.. Once China learns to 'live with Covid', economic activity should recover strongly. Pandemic-driven savings glut to boost consumer spending as Beijing launches infrastructure stimulus package. James Kinde.
10. Will Beijing invade or blockade Taiwan
No. Xi Jinping may one day decide to attack or blockade Taiwan - but probably not in 2023. An invasion would be a colossal gamble. If things go wrong, Xi could start a war with the US, lose power and ruin China's prospects forever. A blockade is much more likely: it will put tremendous pressure on Taiwan to surrender and dare the US to fire the first shot.. But even that comes with huge risks.. Xi is unlikely to roll the dice unless he makes sure that Taiwan is completely out of his hands.. Taiwan's 2024 presidential election could be next moment of crisis. Gideon Rahman.
eleven. Will the era of Erdogan end in the June elections in Turkey
No. Recep Tayyip Erdogan will use many honest and dishonest methods to stay in power despite falling popularity. Extending his rule into a third decade would have dire consequences for Turkey's already troubled economy, exacerbate falling living standards and further curtail personal freedoms..
12. Can Japanese Yield Curve Control Survive
Yes. However, the negative interest rate could be gone, along with other developments such as the recent widening of the trading range for 10-year bond yields.. The Bank of Japan will have a new governor from April. All likely candidates, such as Hiroshi Nakaso and Masayoshi Amamiya, are less dovish than the incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda.. The new governor will seek to " Robin Harding.
13. Will the protests in Iran end
No. Months of demonstrations by Iranian protesters, many of them women, were sparked by the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, who was detained by police. They escalated into calls to replace theocracy with a democratic system.. Their scale is either weakening or fading; if they escalate again, the Islamic regime may take even tougher measures. But as the country's economy suffers from Western sanctions, the protests show a resilience that underscores the anger and frustration of many Iranians.. This ensures that no matter what the authorities do, some form of protest is likely to continue..
fourteen. Will there be a string of defaults in Africa?
Yes. At a minimum, debt restructuring will be carried out with lower rates for investors. After large write-downs in Africa 20 years ago, debt has grown as sovereign states have entered Eurobond markets and borrowed bilaterally. Now that interest rates are rising and the economy is in a post-Covid downturn, debt service payments are becoming unsustainable in some countries.. Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia Sign G20 Agreement on a Common Framework for Indebted States. Ghana secured an IMF bailout last year amid commercial market closures. She won't be the last.
fifteen. Will the S\u0026P 500 drop at least 10 percent
Yes. We asked this question last year, but it's worth repeating.. After a horrendous 2022 that saw U.S. stocks drop by about a fifth and bonds take a historic hit, fund managers ask if the pain is over. unlikely. The rapid rise in interest rates has already dealt a blow, but central banks are in no hurry to ease them, and the looming recession has not yet had time to fully reflect on corporate earnings expectations and stock valuations.
16. Will Twitter Survive
Yes. Purchase by Elon Musk of the company for $44 billion. was predictably chaotic, but the platform will live on. Users won't leave. Alternatives like Mastodon lack scale. However, losses will rise. A Musk-friendly CEO will be appointed, but advertisers will remain on guard and 100 million new $8 subscriptions will be needed to cover interest payments. Musk to buy Twitter debt to ease financial pressure. However, his attachment to " Ban unlikely, but big fines could be on the horizon.
17. Will another big cryptocurrency business fail
Yes, although it depends a bit on the definition of " The brutality of the " But there will be even more casualties next year - and possibly several large ones - as chilled venture capital firms and retail traders continue to back down and deprive the crypto industry of the raw fuel it depends on for growth: the players at the table..
Will Jamie Dimon announce a successor as JPMorgan CEO
No. JPMorgan Chase chief says JPM president Daniel Pinto will take over if he gets hit by a bus or leaves unexpectedly. This does not make Pinto or anyone else his heir.. Dimon was given $50 million by the Board of Directors last year.. in the form of options to be exercised after five years of operation. The dean of Wall Street has already let go of several potential rivals, and the bank plans to open a new headquarters in 2025. Barring another major health problem, he's unlikely to want to get a target on his back so soon.. Brooke Masters.
eighteen. Will one of the major streaming platforms be sold or merged
No not this year. Consolidation is inevitable in the entertainment industry as streaming becomes dominant. Merger speculations are plentiful: NBCUniversal and Warner Bros Discovery, Disney with Apple, Netflix with a tech giant willing to overpay. Warner is likely to be the first domino to fall given its financial woes. But when AT\u0026T sold Warner in 2022, it did so through a structure that limits deals for a few years.. This means a big shake-up is more likely in 2024, when many streamers claim they will finally break even..
nineteen. Will US Women Hold the World Cup
No. The four-time World Cup winner, the US women's team is the most successful international team, but others are starting to catch up..
After Megan Rapinoe's team won the 2019 World Championship, American women have only won bronze at the Tokyo Olympics.. Other countries are gaining momentum, most notably England. The Lionesses beat long-dominated Germany at the 2022 European Championship. They were reinforced by manager Sarina Wigman, who coached her native Holland, who won the European title in 2017 and was runner-up at the 2019 World Championships.. With star striker Beth Mead, England women have a chance to succeed in 2023 where men have failed since 1966.
Well, let's check!