AR: stalemate in the war of attrition could be the basis for a new round of escalation in Ukraine

16 December 2022, 22:19 | Peace
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Many observers believe that the current stalemate is beneficial to Ukraine, allowing it to obtain more modern weapons from the West and prepare for new counter-offensives.. In Russia, there is a growing sense of desperation among hardliners over President Vladimir Putin's indecisiveness and lack of a clear strategy, writes AP NEWS.

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Military analysts note that soon, as the soil freezes, hostilities are likely to intensify again.. Many point to Russian-occupied areas in the south of the country as the most likely location for the next Ukrainian attack..

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He noted that while cold weather is more difficult to sustain military operations, it opens up room for maneuver and "

Kramp believes that the Ukrainian military may try to retake part of the south of the Zaporozhye region and advance to the strategic port of Mariupol on the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov. This would allow Ukraine to cut off Russia's land corridor to Crimea.

Russia, which has suffered humiliating military setbacks in recent months, has called in 300,000 reservists to make up for heavy losses on the battlefield.. Putin said last week that half of them are still being trained at training grounds far from the front lines..

“Russia is trying to create a more effective strike force, and not just throw people on the front lines,” Kramp said.. “They expect to come to the front lines and in greater numbers next year to achieve something spectacular.”.

While working to bolster its offensive forces, the Russian military is also hard at work breaking through the multi-layered Ukrainian defenses in the eastern region of Donetsk in a tenacious trench warfare reminiscent of World War I, moving forward slowly in recent weeks..

Crump noted that the apparent strategy of Russia, which is conducting continuous attacks on the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, is to force Kyiv to leave a significant number of troops there and inflict heavy losses on them..

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Ukraine, in turn, is trying to throw its adversary off balance with surprise attacks, some of which take place deep in Russia..

Moscow admitted last week that Ukraine had attacked its strategic air bases 500 kilometers east of the border with modified Soviet-made drones.. Ukraine has not openly claimed credit for the strikes, but the country's top security official has said that Kyiv considers all Russian territory "

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said recently that the bombing had destroyed half of his country's infrastructure and called on the US and other Western allies to quickly provide more air defense systems to repel the attacks..

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This week, U.S. officials said Washington was ready to approve the delivery of a battery of Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, a powerful weapon capable of shooting down Russian missiles, to Ukraine..

The Kremlin claims that by providing Ukraine with such weapons, training its troops and exchanging military intelligence, NATO has effectively become a party to the conflict.. He warned Washington that Patriot systems and any U.S. personnel sent to train Ukrainian forces in their use would be a legitimate target for Russia..

In speeches last week that reflect growing concerns about escalation, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the fighting could spiral out of control and escalate into a "

Putin called the attacks, which left millions of Ukrainians without electricity, water and heat in freezing temperatures, a legitimate response to the October truck bombing on the bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula with the Russian mainland.. The Kremlin blamed the attack on Kyiv.

Putin acknowledged last week that achieving Moscow's goals in Ukraine could be a " Russian hardliners ridicule Putin's statement.

Igor Strelkov, a former Russian intelligence officer who led separatist forces in eastern Ukraine when the conflict there broke out in 2014, scathingly criticized Putin and his generals for what he said they failed to set clear military goals and mobilize all available.

" - It leads to apathy and undermines morale.

Strelkov said that a protracted conflict could be "

Retired Russian colonel Viktor Alksnis, a hardliner known for trying to prevent the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, warned that the same fate could befall Russia.. He said the impending military defeat in Ukraine would lead to Russia's "

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's Security Council chaired by Putin, warned last month that the ongoing Ukrainian offensive could trigger a nuclear response under the country's deterrence doctrine, which calls for the use of these weapons if a conventional attack threatens the existence of the Russian state..

Supporting Ukraine's ambitions to conquer new territories, Medvedev said that "

Tatyana Stanovaya, a Carnegie Endowment expert who monitors the mood of the Kremlin and the Russian elite, noted a growing sense of hopelessness and despair among the ruling class..



Members of the ruling class see Russia's recent military setbacks as a sign that the country is headed for military defeat, she said..

“Everything is perceived as a precipitous fall into chaos and even the disintegration of the country,” Stanovaya said in her recent analysis..

She pointed to a growing rift between those in the ruling elite who favor a freeze on the conflict so Russia can recoup its losses and those who favor a rate hike..

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