As Vladimir Putin ramps up his war against Ukraine, the stability of his own regime hangs in the balance.. Some observers speculate that the Russian president could be overthrown. Others even hope for the collapse of the country. This provokes the question of whether the Russian Federation can disintegrate?

Director of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University Marlene Laruelle writes about this in an article for Foreign Affairs.. She points out that Russian geography itself makes the integrity of the country questionable.. After all, it stretched over 11 time zones, which makes it the largest country in the world in terms of territory.. 20% of the population of Russia are not ethnic Russians, but people belonging to local indigenous peoples.

A few weeks before the invasion of Ukraine began, the UN Urban Prosperity Index named Moscow the third richest city in the world.. But at the same time, a significant part of Siberia is very sparsely populated.. And the existing population lives in poverty. The far north is dominated by neglected industrial and mining cities.. Currently, residents of the Russian Far East are more economically connected with China, Japan and South Korea than with Moscow and St. Petersburg.. Under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, power was completely centralized and concentrated in Moscow.. Political and cultural autonomy in the provinces was reduced.

Laruelle notes that the collapse of Russia still will not solve the “Russian problem”.

“Any positive future for Russia and its neighbors such as Ukraine, as well as for the whole world, will require the country not to explode, but to preload its federalism from within,” the article says..

Ties that aren't always strong.

There have been many leaders in Russian history who have used a mixture of " Tsars gave cultural autonomy to some conquered peoples and assimilated others by brute force. The regime in the USSR played the same scenario, sometimes glorifying national identities, and sometimes deporting and punishing people for being “disloyal” to the Soviet project..

In the 20th century, there were only two periods of relative decentralization in Russia. The first of these was observed during the Soviet era under the leadership of Nikita Khrushchev in 1953–1964.. And the second began with the "

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As soon as Putin became president in 2000, he gradually began to return control of the Russian regions and republics to Moscow.. Growing socio-economic inequality between residents of rich metropolitan areas and provincial regions provoked great tension. Moscow and the regions around it consume more of the state budget than they contribute to it. Siberia brings the state much more money than it receives. Moscow has concentrated too much power in its hands. And distant regions have lost their bureaucratic and financial autonomy, which inhibits their development.. Even in Krasnodar Krai, where loyalty to Putin is high, local leaders have criticized bureaucrats in Moscow for imposing policies that are at odds with reality on the ground..

Russia's ethnic map complicates matters. 21 autonomous ethnic republics within the Russian Federation do not form one whole. Ethnic Russians dominate in some regions. For example, in Buryatia they make up two-thirds of the total population.. But there are almost no Russians in other republics. For example, in Dagestan there are only 3% of them.. With a few exceptions aside, they not only suffer from the economic challenges that the fate of Russia's outlying provinces imposes on them, but also harbor deep cultural grievances..

“For example, in linguistically diverse regions, dissatisfaction with the dominance of the Russian language is growing. Local activists demanded that history textbooks stop writing about the allegedly peaceful annexation of their peoples to the Russian Empire. In the Arctic region, indigenous leaders opposed the exploitation of what was once their land by the big oil companies..

Laruelle admits that Russia's war against Ukraine could increase demands for more autonomy from Moscow. The mobilization in September provoked resistance in regions populated by ethnic minorities, which had already suffered significant losses in the war.. Even the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, who calls himself Putin's loyal infantryman, stopped mobilization in his republic earlier than in other regions.. He announced that Chechnya had already fulfilled its quota. In September, the wife of the Chief Mufti of Dagestan made a similar statement..

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Profound demographic changes could heighten calls for decentralization. Of the 20 Russian regions with positive population growth, 19 have a relatively high percentage of other peoples. This is especially true of Dagestan and Chechnya in the North Caucasus, as well as the Republic of Tuva in Siberia. In the Republic of Sakha, the population of the capital city of Yakutsk has doubled over the past 30 years thanks to an influx of young Yakuts from the countryside.. This makes the city the most vibrant center of indigenous culture..

However, despite the fact that the grievances of the ethnic minorities of Russia are sincere, they do not transform into separatism.. Polls show that Russian state patriotism is widespread in ethnic republics.

“It can be assumed that these peoples will support independence if the process starts. But it is more likely that most of them will still consider Russia their homeland.. They would be satisfied if they were given more cultural and political autonomy,” the article says..

The collapse of Russia will not solve anything.

Laruelle notes that there is little evidence from within the Russian Federation that the country may disintegrate.. But some Western politicians still allow this possibility.. Also, representatives of the ethnic groups of Russia and the Russian opposition in exile also promote the idea of \u200b\u200b“decolonization of Russia”. But the author warns the West not to confuse the radicalized statements of politicians abroad with the sentiments of Russian citizens, which are much more complex..

“It would also be wrong to expect minorities with more power to automatically help create a Russia in sync with Western norms.. Ethnic minorities are no more committed to democracy, human rights, good governance, and Western liberalism than the Russian ethnic majority.. The main cultural division of Russia is not between ethnic Russians and minorities, but between large cities and the rest of the country: industrial depressed regions, rural provinces and ethnic republics,” the author emphasizes..

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She also believes that the collapse of Russia would be a disaster for international security.. After all, it will be the impetus for the start of several civil wars.. New state formations will begin to fight among themselves for borders and economic assets. Elites in Moscow, who control a vast nuclear arsenal, will respond to separatism with violence. The secret services will suppress any attempts at democratization if it means a repetition of the collapse of the USSR on the scale of the Russian Federation.

“Although decolonization sounds like liberation, in practice this process is likely to throw all of Russia and ethnic regions even further into the past,” Laruelle said..

The author believes that the collapse of Russia is unlikely. However, after the catastrophic war against Ukraine, the regime will still face increasing pressure to demand decentralization..

The best result would be for self-government enshrined in the Russian constitution to finally become a reality.. Although so far Putin has ignored these instructions.

“This re-federalization of Russia will only be possible in tandem with a national reckoning for the Russian colonial legacy. Its rethinking would be beneficial for both ethnic Russians and minorities. But as in the US and Europe, this social transformation will take decades.. However, it's worth it. Only a culturally and politically decentralized Russia can reform from within,” the article says..