Voluntary departure from the country, mobilization and combat losses will further exacerbate the demographic catastrophe in the Russian Federation that began in the mid-1990s. The Russian National Statistics Institute Rosstat will publish final annual data only in February. But the researchers contacted by France Info have little doubt about future upheavals, the consequences of a war against a neighboring country..
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Initially unknown meaning of two waves of travel abroad: after the start of the invasion, then during the mobilization, from which many Russians wanted to escape. Borders of several states neighboring Russia (Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, etc.). ) passed thousands of citizens who wanted to leave the country.
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“Even in the most peaceful years, Russia underestimated the number of those who left the territory for a long period,” explains demographer Sergei Zakharov from the Institute for Advanced Studies (IEA) in Nantes. In particular, Russian emigrants do not always notify government services of their departure.. Therefore, it is advisable to refer to the data of the host countries, but those do not always have well-established statistics..
The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia reports the entry of 112,733 Russian citizens into the country between January and September, without giving figures on the final moves. “We are seeing a huge influx of Russians,” said the head of the Central Bank of Armenia, Martin Galstyan, referring to “educated people” and the possible “long-term effect” of their arrival..
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Some 32,000 Russian migrants have been registered in Israel, adds Jean-Christophe Dumont of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, a significant increase from last year.. In Western Europe, the balance of arrivals and departures hovers around 38,000, according to data from Frontex.
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" Gap 'too big to reach consensus'. In addition, nothing indicates that these cases can be called permanent.. “Some people who fled the country may not have intended to leave,” the researcher says, but only wanted “to avoid war and having to kill Ukrainians or be killed”. Therefore, it is too early to estimate the weight of these trips in the medium term..
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Alain Bloom, a demographer at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS), notes that “during past major crises, the Soviet strategy was to close the border to travel,” which was less true this year.. Some of these Russians also continue to work for their employers through remote work.. All questions are whether they intend to return to Russia after the stabilization of the situation.
A “heterogeneous” population has left Russia, Sergey Zakharov emphasizes, but for the most part these are “urban residents who have the opportunity not to listen to propaganda from television screens and receive independent information on the Internet”. Brain drain was characteristic of Russia already before the war. After the mass demonstrations in 2011, repression helped accelerate the outflow.
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“Previously, Russian IT specialists created entire colonies in Cyprus or New Zealand,” Sergey Zakharov explains, “now new colonies are being formed in Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, Montenegro, Turkey...” Some university professors also find a way out, and “Moscow universities are already very strong.
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Combat losses unknown.
Military casualties are still shrouded in mystery.
Due to censorship, we also had to wait half a century for “a more or less reliable assessment of the losses of the USSR during World War II,” recalls Sergei Zakharov, who takes the minimum figure of 50,000 dead as a working hypothesis..
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In the end, the mobilization absorbed 300,000 people, and according to some public organizations, more. A third of industrial companies are now experiencing labor shortages, according to a Gaidar Institute survey.. New waves of mobilization could further aggravate the situation.