The liberation of every person from the savage Russian occupation is a victory for Ukraine. But it is also very important for those outside the Ukrainian borders.. The expulsion of Russian forces sends a vital signal to Moscow, Washington and Brussels.

And the Ukrainian offensive has a wider impact and significance than a short-term tactical success, Keir Giles, an expert on Russia and Eurasia at Chatham House, writes in an article for The Guardian..

Firstly, Ukraine’s autumn offensive as a whole is a clear demonstration for Kyiv’s Western friends that the war is not static.. At the beginning of the year, the fear that the situation would reach a protracted stalemate provoked hesitation and doubts about the ability of Ukraine and its allies to maintain their course.. Now the Ukrainian army has removed all doubts, taking the initiative in their own hands and having survived the war much longer than external observers expected.. This will only strengthen the determination of the West in tough support for Kyiv. The offensive also cut the ground from under the feet of all those who insisted that Ukraine should “make concessions” to Russia in order to end the bloodshed.. Offered concessions are often difficult to distinguish from surrender.

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Second, in Russia itself, the undeniable defeats in Ukraine have forced Russian propagandists to face an unbridgeable chasm of reality.. At the beginning of the invasion, Moscow held information in a tight grip, which allowed it to rewrite the goals of the war.. And she did it more than once.. Now the abyss has become too obvious. The propaganda machine has missed the opportunity to distort the facts, it is out of control. When one day Vladimir Putin announces that Russia will “annex” parts of Ukraine and they will now be Russian forever, and the next day the news is filled with information about the retreat of the Russian army from these regions, even the most Orwellian distortion of reality cannot withstand. Moreover, Russia will lose even more international support. Since Putin's farcical encroachments have become obvious to everyone in the world.

Ukraine's military successes are a spectacle that will help Ukraine's Western supporters hold their ground. But it's also a race against time.. Russia likely to be able to curb the chaos of mobilization. And when new troops are sent to the front in a certain combat-ready form, this will again change the nature of the conflict.. It is therefore essential that the Ukrainian counter-offensive continue to make progress faster than Russian mobilization can hinder it..

Ukrainian success is also an act of balancing. Some Western politicians continue to fear a Ukrainian victory, largely because Russia's long campaign to convince people that Russia's defeat in the war will inevitably end in the use of nuclear weapons has been extremely successful.. Real preparations for the use of nuclear weapons would be a serious cause for concern. But it doesn't happen. The US government and well-informed observers say Moscow is not taking the necessary steps to prepare for a nuclear strike.. Therefore, after all, people still pay more attention to what Putin says than to what his army does..

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Fear of the use of nuclear weapons is most common among analysts and experts for whom the Russian problem is completely new.. In fact, there is a real big rift between them and seasoned Russia experts, who tend to talk about the significantly less chance that Putin will launch a nuclear strike..

Russia has failed to undermine Western support for Ukraine, even cutting or shutting off gas supplies.. But this does not mean that its possibilities have been exhausted.. Moscow will look for new ways to make this war a personal issue for peoples across Europe and North America, hoping they will put pressure on their governments to give up Kyiv.. One form of escalation appears to be a Russian attack on underwater energy infrastructure. Explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipeline raised the ears of the whole of Europe.

But Russian soldiers have roamed the continent before, killing people and staging sabotage attacks, even before the start of 2022.. Chemical or biological attacks or the restoration of Moscow's longstanding practice of sponsoring terrorists to wreak havoc in the West are all options available to the Russian authorities, who are no longer trying to maintain any kind of relationship with Europe.. Despite Ukrainian successes on the battlefield, the end of this war is still very long. And Russia will no doubt use every means available to it to test the courage of the West..