War in Ukraine may aggravate confrontation between the West and Russia in the Arctic

31 August 2022, 19:53 | Peace
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Due to the war in Ukraine, the Arctic has become a place for a possible escalation of the conflict between the West and Russia, the so-called spill over (when some events lead to the emergence of others that are outwardly unrelated to them), reports DW.

According to German expert Geran Svistek, the Arctic has become a place of possible confrontation due to large-scale militarization, primarily by Russia..

According to the expert, Russia is probably seeking to maximize its sphere of influence and secure favorable starting positions for itself by the time when, due to the thawing of permafrost, mining in the region becomes possible..

“Personally, I believe that the Arctic can become a place of escalation of the Ukrainian conflict,” the expert says..

He does not exclude the growth of tension due to conflicts of interest up to military clashes..

Joachim Weber, another expert on geopolitics and security at the University of Bonn, believes that NATO has ignored the situation in the Arctic in recent years, while Russia has increased its military presence there..

However, in his opinion, the Arctic is not the source of tension: “Many have misinterpreted the situation, arguing that future conflicts around minerals are emerging in the Arctic.. But in fact it's the other way around. The reason for the tension is the events in Ukraine, which cast a shadow, including on the Far North."

In general, for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, last week was a time of significant visits from Europe. The topic of the Canadian Arctic was not the last in the negotiations.

First, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Canada, accompanied by Vice Chancellor Robert Habek and representatives of the German business elite..

Speaking in Montreal, the head of the German government, to the delight of the audience, noted that Canada not only has all the minerals that Russia also has, but in addition to them - democracy and an attractive investment climate.

And just a couple of days later, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg arrived in Canada, with whom Trudeau went to the Canadian Air Force base located beyond the Arctic Circle in Alberta. There, Stoltenberg said that Russian ambitions in the Arctic are a strategic challenge for NATO and that against the background of the strengthening of the Russian military presence in the region, its importance for the North Atlantic Alliance is growing..

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Thus, the war in Ukraine unexpectedly returned Canada to the forefront of world politics, both in terms of energy supplies and in matters of defense..

The Russian invasion of Ukraine forced the government in Ottawa to rethink its fiscal policy priorities.. In June, Canadian authorities announced plans to invest about 4.9 billion Canadian dollars (about 3.8 billion US dollars) over the next six years to modernize the NORAD system, the joint command of the aerospace defense of North America. And Stoltenberg himself, having returned from Canada, in an interview with the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag said that in view of possible new threats from Russia, NATO intends to expand its activity in the Arctic region..

However, another powerful player with Arctic ambitions is still in the shadows.. " This is China,” explains Joachim Weber.. And although the PRC does not have an Arctic coastline and is itself thousands of kilometers from the region, this country considers itself an Arctic power and at the same time has gigantic economic and military resources.. “And we will still hear about the Chinese in the Arctic,” predicts a German expert.

The Arctic zone of Russia covers about five million square kilometers and stretches along the shores of the Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas to the Bering Strait.

The length of the Arctic coastline of the Russian Federation is over 24 thousand kilometers, which is more than half of the coastline of the entire Arctic.

The interest of the Russian authorities in the region is quite understandable. It is in the Arctic that about 90 percent of Russian gas and about 60 percent of oil are produced.. According to experts, by 2035, about 60 percent of all hydrocarbons on the planet will be produced at fields located in the Arctic..




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