For six months now, a great land war has been spreading terror in Europe. This is a war in which violence and normality somehow manage to coexist: cafes are filled in Kyiv, although death and destruction reign a few hundred kilometers to the east along a 2,000-kilometer front line..
This is a war in which artillery duels take place, and soldiers fight in the trenches.. But its future fate is largely influenced by political whims in the United States and Europe, the willingness to tolerate inflation and fuel shortages which could be decisive for the next stage of the conflict.. And it's a message-and-picture war in which two countries with deep family ties have turned social media into yet another battlefield..
Nobody knows how it will all end. President Vladimir Putin has suffocated all manifestations of dissent by declaring that his country has " President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, buoyed by Western popularity and unity, rules out peace talks and urges his people not to give in. Will Western support last as Europe braces for winter without Russian oil and gas And after the strikes in Crimea and the murder of a nationalist commentator, will Putin escalate the war? Will Zelensky be able to maintain the resolve of his people in the confrontation with an enemy armed with nuclear weapons?
The Kremlin now controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory. But Putin's dream of subjugating Ukraine seems even more elusive, though there is no indication that he is ready to stop the fighting.. The New York Times writes about how the war looks in the eyes of its participants six months after Russian troops crossed the border of a neighboring country.
Ukraine is preparing for “something disgusting”.
Before the Independence Day of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced a completely sober view of the threat looming over his country. He warned that Moscow could try to spoil the August 24 celebrations by doing " After all, this very day marks six months since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.. This war forced many Ukrainians to flee their homes, took the lives of thousands of soldiers and undermined the Ukrainian economy.. Officials have warned that Russia could stage massive cruise missile attacks or stage a show trial of Ukrainian prisoners in occupied Mariupol..
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In front-line cities, Russian-occupied territory and long-range missile strikes, the biggest war in Europe since World War II can be seen burning.. But risk-takers Ukrainians are trying to regain a sense of normalcy after the shock of the winter invasion.. Thanks to the fact that the Ukrainian army stopped the Russian offensive on Kyiv and the northern regions of Ukraine, families began to prepare for the new school year in schools. Cafe filled with customers. The regions where the majority of Ukrainians live are stable and relatively safe. The Ukrainian government is working, the army, which is getting better and better Western weapons, is also keeping order.
“The initial threat was that the Russian army, being the second largest army in the world, would establish dominance in the sky. But we managed to learn how to deal with it,” former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodniuk told the New York Times..
But he added that the hit economy, the threat of air strikes and the cost of a war of attrition could exhaust Ukraine's ability to resist.. The war has been going on for six months. But Zagorodnyuk notes that surviving is not the same as winning..
" And we can't go to boring low intensity war. We need to think about how to push them out of here,” said the former minister.
The New York Times writes that the war is definitely not at the point where Moscow would like it to be.. The publication points to the parade of burnt Russian equipment in the center of Kyiv, which became a mockery of the aggressor. Ukrainian children climb out onto the burnt wreckage of tanks and armored personnel carriers, and passers-by stop to take selfies.
“In February, the Russians planned a parade. After six months of a large-scale war, the humiliating exhibition of rusty Russian metal is a reminder to all dictators how a free and courageous people can destroy their plans,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said on Twitter..
However, shaky normality masks the high cost of the war that Ukraine has paid.. The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights reported the death of 5587 Ukrainian civilians, another 7890 were injured. However, the international organization admitted that the real figures could be much higher.. This week, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that about 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers died in battles in 6 months.. In his speech, Zelensky admitted that Ukrainians can hardly imagine anything worse from Russia than what they are already dealing with.. But the Ukrainians are still preparing.
Hard nationalists rule in Russia.
Few Russians could have imagined in February that Vladimir Putin would order a massive invasion of Ukraine.. Even commentators loyal to the Kremlin dismissed the idea as stupid, risky and senseless cruelty.. Putin, keeping his plans secret from everyone except his closest associates, expected the war to end in a matter of days..
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And then the failed invasion began, the sanctions hit, the anti-war Russians began to flee. What followed was a humiliating retreat from Kyiv, photos of Russian atrocities and mounting evidence pointing to heavy casualties among the Russian military.. Putin expected to be hailed as a liberator, but he became the one who ignited the biggest war in Europe since World War II. But now, after six months of war, Putin is still fighting. And others support him.
“One country, one president, one victory,” nationalist MP Leonid Slutsky said at the funeral of Daria Dugina, who supported the war against Ukraine. Her death in a car bombing last week marked a new turning point in the conflict..
Russia has changed a lot after six months of the war, but at the same time it has remained the same. What was left of independent media, politics and culture was completely suppressed. The last voices that criticized Putin have been replaced by militaristic ultra-nationalism spread by state TV channels.. The protests against the war that took place in the first weeks were completely suppressed.. Dissenting even on social media can land you in jail for 15 years, according to a law passed in March..
However, Putin also shied away from the calls of his most ardent supporters of his invasion to put all of Russia on a war footing.. His government successfully softened the impact of economic sanctions on the daily life of Russians, and also did not start a large-scale military mobilization of the population.. This explains the data of the Levada Center, whose polls revealed that 43% of Russians do not follow the events in Ukraine.. The Russian army is bogged down at the front. But Putin appears ready for a war of attrition.. He also does not speak clearly about what kind of agreement to end the war he would be willing to accept.. Russian autocrat accuses the West, which supplies Kyiv with heavy weapons, of wanting to fight Russia “to the last Ukrainian”. This phrase says that he still believes in the ability to withstand more than his rivals..
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The approaching winter and Europe's heavy reliance on Russian energy give Putin confidence that he can keep the war going until the West splits or the Ukrainian army and the government are exhausted.. But supporters of the war in Russia are increasingly questioning this approach, pointing to the explosions in occupied Crimea and the death of Dugin near Moscow as evidence that the Kremlin is underestimating its enemies..
Kyiv denies involvement in the death of Daria Dugina. But Russia blames Ukraine for the murder. This episode gave a new impetus to the Russian " They see this war not only as a way to revive the lost empire, but also as a tool to eradicate the last germs of liberalism in Russian society..
“For them, the more the country goes deeper into this catastrophe, the less likely it is that there will be a turning point,” said Russian political analyst Marat Gelman..