Russian invasion of Ukraine continues for seven months. And all indications are that the conflict is heading for a complex and unstable stalemate.. One of the key questions remains how the European Union will react if the Russian war against a neighboring country drags on for a long time..

Mujtaba Rahman, director of European affairs at the consulting company Eurasia Group, writes about this in an article for Politico.. Senior EU officials admit that there could be a “moment of crisis” in the fall or early winter when the countries of the union begin to acutely feel the economic consequences of the war.. At the same time, they will be asked to increase financial support for Ukraine, as well as military assistance..

To prepare public opinion for the challenges ahead, many leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, have begun warning their citizens that the war in Ukraine will continue for many more months.. And that the consequences that have become tangible now are only the beginning. Macron said that France will continue to provide Ukraine with military, financial and humanitarian assistance until victory on acceptable terms for Kyiv. Behind these public statements of support, however, lies a quiet tug-of-war between the leaders of Germany, France and Italy on the one hand, and Poland, the Baltics and Northern Europe on the other.. Paris and Berlin still harbor serious illusions about the consequences of a Ukrainian victory. They also doubt that the war can be won without an escalation that would drag NATO into direct conflict with Russia.. Therefore, one should understand the difference between what President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz say in public and their private views, which people in their environment know about..

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But if the United States continues to support Ukraine, and the interest in unity within the EU does not change, Berlin and Paris are unlikely to publicly dare to oppose the position of the member states of the union from Central and Eastern Europe.. This means they won't be able to push forward a diplomatic solution this or next year.. But differences of opinion will influence how far and how fast the EU is willing to go.. This will be felt most clearly in the debate on the imposition of new sanctions against Russia, which will be increasingly difficult in the next phase of the war, despite the fact that Poland, the Baltic states and Northern Europe will demand the imposition of more powerful sanctions against the energy sector of the Russian Federation as soon as possible..

The EU will certainly continue to discuss serious restrictions, but is unlikely to make any decisions quickly. But this does not mean that Russia is not threatened with new sanctions.. They will definitely be tightened by the end of next year.. And new decisions could expand the oil embargo, as well as affect Russian nuclear power and gas exports.. However, the adoption of new EU decisions will take much longer.. And reaching agreement on them will be more difficult.. In view of this political reality, Brussels and EU capitals will focus on other forms of assistance for Ukraine until the end of 2022. In particular, the EU will try to fulfill its promise to transfer 9 billion euros of financial assistance to Kyiv. This is important because the Ukrainian state is on the verge of default. And every month its budget lacks about 5 billion euros. So financial problems could undermine Kyiv's ability to continue the defense.. It is unlikely that the EU will decide to issue a common debt in order to raise funds to support Ukraine or combat the consequences of the Russian war in the EU itself.. However, the block may offer Kyiv new grants and loans..

Military support, according to the author, will also continue, as well as the discussion of Ukrainian integration into EU structures after the decision to grant Kyiv the status of a candidate for joining the union. Joining some structures will help unlock additional funding for Ukraine, as well as revitalize Ukrainian reforms. Of course, EU membership negotiations will take a long time.. But supporting this prospect will send a clear signal to Russia of European commitment to Ukraine, and will also contribute to internal cohesion and unity in the union..

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The most uncertain factor remains the trajectory of public opinion in Europe about the war. Macron more than Scholz will have to fight fatigue in his country. The French President will have to confront right and left radicals who are traditionally fond of Vladimir Putin and opposed to NATO.

It will be difficult for Macron to fulfill this task after losing an absolute parliamentary majority in last month's elections.. Although the French constitution gives the president pre-eminence in matters of foreign affairs and defense. However, solidarity with Ukraine and solidarity within Europe will be the biggest test for Macron's legacy.. His European strategy and outlook, which assumes that the EU must gain strategic importance and build up military muscle, will either gain more support or fail the European response to the Russian war against Ukraine.