On February 24, the world was engulfed in horror as Russian missiles fell on cities in Ukraine.. US, UK and EU have imposed sweeping sanctions against the Russian government and Vladimir Putin. People who were lucky enough to live in countries that were not invaded rushed to help the Ukrainians in any way they could, donating money, things for refugees or going out to protest against the war..
Wednesday marks exactly six months since that terrible day.. The initial Russian blitzkrieg has failed, giving way to a slow war of attrition that continues in southern and eastern Ukraine.. The situation is now no less difficult than in the first months of the invasion.. But it may be harder for democratic governments to convince their societies of this amid rising energy and food prices.. Bloomberg lists six results from six months of war.
Victims among innocent people are very heavy.
It is quite possible that the months when civilian casualties were the greatest are behind us.. But hundreds of peaceful Ukrainians are still losing their lives. And many more will be hurt. The publication notes that the peak of civilian deaths in Ukraine fell on March. Then there were more than 5 thousand dead and wounded in the country per month.. From May to July inclusive, losses among Ukrainian civilians were approximately the same - less than 2,000 monthly.. In August, this figure dropped significantly and became the lowest for all 6 months of the war..
Millions of refugees scattered across Europe.
Even before the start of the Russian invasion, there were estimates that from a million to five million people could leave Ukraine in the event of a war.. Reality showed that these estimates were too conservative.. Around 6.7 million registered refugees are scattered across Europe, not counting those who have already returned home.. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees recorded 11 million border crossings from Ukraine and 4.7 million in the opposite direction. The majority of Ukrainians who left in Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic.
Global support for Ukraine began to decline.
The horrors unfolding in Ukraine have united the democratic world and its societies. In the UK, Ukrainian flags can still be seen on the streets as a sign of moral support.. Governments have transferred billions of dollars to help the Ukrainian army, as well as humanitarian and financial assistance. They also imposed sanctions against Putin and his henchmen..
[see_also ids\u003d"
But that didn't stop the bloodshed. And the Bloomberg editors believe that public support for Ukraine in the West will decline the longer the war goes on.. Especially Western societies will be pressured by their own problems, including rising prices. A survey conducted in 10 European countries in May found that 42% of respondents believe that their governments are paying too much attention to Ukraine. They would like the authorities of their countries to deal more with problems at home.
Putin wins the energy war.
Of course, many European problems were caused by the same enemy as in the case of Ukraine - because of Putin.. Dropping bombs on Ukrainian cities, he successfully weaponized energy supplies. Energy market forecasts are rather bleak. Bloomberg journalist Javier Blas wrote that despite all current indicators, Putin is winning the energy battle.. Russia still receives hundreds of millions of dollars from oil sales. And this money goes to finance the war against Ukraine.
This means that Moscow can afford to give up for a while the income it received from the sale of gas, and at the same time increase pressure on Berlin, Paris and London.. These capitals are bracing for massive shortages and rising energy prices. Base electricity price in Germany rises to record high in six months. As of August 18, it amounted to 552 euros per megawatt hour. And the price tag is unlikely to come down any time soon..
Germany did a good job to stock up on gas for the winter. Its goal is to fill its vaults by November by 95%.. And now it seems that Berlin is quite capable of doing it.. However, the risk of a cold and dark winter due to constant blackouts is still very real for many countries on the continent.. Because the physical presence of energy carriers is half the battle. The other half is pricing. And here the situation is getting worse. Kosovo is already cutting supplies after a state distributor ran out of money to import electricity from Albania. In the next six months, most likely many other countries will do the same.. The UK is already planning to cut power for short periods in January.
Switzerland is still neutral, which is good.
The democratic world has acted as the only front against Russian atrocities in Ukraine. And it puts one country in an awkward position. It's about Switzerland.. Neutrality has been part of the Swiss national identity for centuries.
[see_also ids\u003d"
But can the Alpine state preserve this feature and at the same time protect democratic and humanitarian values \u200b\u200bagainst the background of the Russian invasion Bloomberg journalist Andreas Kluth believes Switzerland must remain neutral. In the end, sooner or later, peace will have to be negotiated.. And this will require an absolutely neutral environment.. Geneva remains the best option.
The next six months will be very different from the previous ones..
What's next? According to Gal Brands, an expert at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, the war is entering a third phase that could be decisive.. The first was a Russian blitzkrieg attempt. The second is the beginning of the battle for Donbass. The third phase, according to Brands, should be distinguished by a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. If Kyiv manages to regain control over a significant territory, time will be on its side. This will have both psychological and tactical impact..
Meanwhile, Putin was focused on rewriting the past and living through the present while completely ignoring the future.. As long as he managed to maintain at least demonstrative public support. But this is only because the Russians expect that they will not have to pay for the war against Ukraine.. However, reality will inevitably remind of itself. And it will be a painful blow for the Russians. Russia is moving towards a future in which only poor quality goods are available to its citizens, safety standards are low, there will be almost no foreign direct investment, and real incomes of the population will decline.. The situation, in fact, is very reminiscent of the end of the USSR, if this empire ever ended. Formally, it no longer exists..
But Russia's war against Ukraine is the latest and worst manifestation of its death throes.. The declaration of Ukrainian independence helped to overthrow the Soviet empire in 1991. So it's rather symbolic and sad that Ukraine today finds itself at the epicenter of Putin's desperate attempt to reclaim Russian dominance.. It's safe to say that the last 6 months have changed many lives, as well as the world order.. And you can also say that the next six months can do the same.