In 2014, Russians massively supported the annexation of Ukrainian Kirm. Then there was a patriotic mobilization of the population. And the sanctions imposed by the West did not stop business activity in Russia. But today, when Russia is waging war against Ukraine, the situation is completely different..

Russian economist Andrei Yakovlev said this in an interview with Der Spiegel.. Referring to personal conversations with representatives of Russian business, he assures that everyone in the country knows who is to blame for all the problems.. However, according to Yakovlev, entrepreneurs in Russia do not influence the political course of the country.. And " Naturally, these efforts benefit the Russian economy.. But, according to Yakovlev, it should also be understood that this has nothing to do with supporting the behavior of Vladimir Putin..

“Everyone is well aware that this time the broken supply chains will not resume in a few months.. And this understanding didn't come quickly. Back in March, many thought that Western companies would return, because no one wants to lose a profitable business.. And then the realization came that the sanctions this time are much more massive and wider than in 2014. Companies are only now beginning to slowly realize that there is no path to normality,” the economist said..

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He also noted that opinion polls in Russia indicate that Putin is allegedly supported by 80% of the population.. But Yakovlev assures that his personal conversations indicate otherwise.. The regime has become much more repressive since 2014. People are unsure if their survey responses will truly remain anonymous. The risk is very high. You can go to jail for many years for anti-war statements, even on social networks. Yakovlev assures that the results of polls in Russia are greatly exaggerated.

“Of course, there are those who support the war against Ukraine, who were successfully affected by the Kremlin’s propaganda.. But I don't think there are more than 25-30%. This group is nothing more than an anti-war group. If the economic situation worsens, these people will react,” the Russian economist is sure.

He acknowledged that this reaction is difficult to predict.. But he recalled that in 2018 there were large-scale protests in Russia against raising the retirement age.. Rallies are often held in the regions against landfills, the construction of churches, or actions that harm the environment.. Sometimes they are so large-scale that the regional authorities have to meet the requirements of the participants in such actions..

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“In 2014, among the Russian elites, there were those who lost a lot due to the annexation. These were business circles that had lost significant resources and influence. But there were also clear winners of the situation. Today in Russia there is no one who would win. And this will lead to tension among the elites. But as long as Putin is at the top, there is no point in waiting for change.. He's destroyed every retreat for himself.. And he also tried to put a significant part of political circles in the same position,” Yakovlev said..

For example, Putin forced the members of the National Security Council of the Russian Federation to publicly support his militant course.. And, according to the economist, many are “not comfortable” to say all these things.. At the same time, only a small group of people from Putin's entourage today makes a decision. And this creates serious tension in power circles.. According to Yakovlev, the longer the war against Ukraine and the decline of the Russian economy continue, the stronger this tension will be..