If Ukraine is behind a string of bombings at a Russian air base in Crimea, it could escalate the war that Russia unleashed in late February..
According to Newsweek, this is the opinion of experts with whom the publication spoke.. On Tuesday, videos of explosions appeared at an air base near the town of Saki in annexed Crimea.. The Russian Defense Ministry said they detonated aviation munitions, killing one person and injuring several more.. But while Moscow tries to convince that there was no attack on the base, the New York Times reported, citing a Ukrainian defense official, that it was Ukraine that struck..
Michael Kimmage, professor and director of the history department at the Catholic University of America, believes that if Ukrainian involvement is confirmed, an escalation of the war could “definitely” occur.. He explained that there are two reasons why this episode is really important for Russia.. Firstly, recently there have been a series of explosions at Russian ammunition depots. And this is a serious military problem that holds back Moscow and costs it dearly..
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Second, there are indications that the attack on the base in Crimea created “public relations problems” for Russia.. Kimmage pointed to the fact that Moscow is simultaneously spreading two different explanations for the explosion in Crimea.. On the one hand, she says that it was an accident due to the detonation of ammunition, and on the other hand, the Russian propaganda machine blames the Ukrainians.
" I think this is a big problem for the Russians, especially if the Russian population gets the impression that things are really bad,” said Kimmage..
Russian state media reported last month about a statement by former president and deputy chairman of the Russian National Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, in which he stressed that the Ukrainian attack in Crimea would require a “doomsday response.”. Kimmage is convinced that if the escalation after the strikes on the air base takes place, it will not be on the fronts, because the Russian army does not have enough manpower for this.. At the same time, he admits that Moscow can arrange shelling of large cities such as Kyiv and Lvov, as well as hit Ukrainian power grids and arrange cyber attacks..
Other experts believe that the Ukrainian strike on Crimea could be a turning point or send a clear signal in the war that has been going on for half a year.. Journalist and Russia analyst Yair Navot said that if Ukraine is behind the bombings at the Russian air base, then this is a "
“I would even say that this could be the beginning of a new stage in the war,” he added..
Retired U.S. Army Colonel and former Director of the U.S. National Security Council for Europe Alexander Windman said "
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Russia annexed Ukrainian Crimea in 2014 and has since sought international recognition of this fact.. But the peninsula in the Black Sea is still the subject of conflict. In an interview with CBS in April, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that he would not allow Russia to formally recognize Crimea as a Russian territory.. The United States considers the island as part of Ukraine and calls on Moscow to return control over it to Kyiv.
“In Ukrainian and American eyes, Crimea is an occupied territory. Therefore, it is quite fair that the war also concerns him. But if Russia regards this as an attack on Russian territory, then there will be no more forbidden tricks.. Perhaps that is why in Moscow they are trying to maintain ambiguity, ”Kimmage suggested..
He added that Vladimir Putin was under " The expert is convinced that Putin needs to “manage this crowd somehow”. This is why information can be manipulated.