Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Africa last week. During the trip, he argued that Moscow would like to find a political solution to end the war it unleashed against Ukraine.. But allegedly Kyiv is "

Russian diplomats repeat the same thesis, telling US media and politicians that Washington avoids diplomatic contacts and blocks the search for a peaceful solution.. Zalmay Khalilzad, an American diplomat and former US permanent representative to the UN, writes about this in an article for the Wall Street Journal..

He calls Russian claims " There are high-level communication channels to convey serious messages. And if officials in Moscow want to discuss finding a political solution, then they know exactly how to use these channels.. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jakes Sullivan spoke with their Russian counterparts. There are no signs that Vladimir Putin really wants to negotiate peace.

Messages from Moscow are contradictory and tactically adapted to specific audiences. Talk of a possible peace talks aims to weaken support for Ukraine, split its supporters and reduce Russia's international isolation.. To find more reliable indicators, it is better to look at what is happening on the ground. There is nothing that looks like a prelude to a political resolution of the conflict. Moscow is preparing to escalate and seize territories. The Kremlin wants to annex those territories now under occupation, conquer additional Ukrainian regions, and is also conducting attacks on the main cities of Donbass and trying to destroy Ukrainian identity wherever it can..

[see_also ids\u003d"

Moscow has appointed its “officials” in the Donbass, is handing out Russian passports to local residents and replacing Ukrainian school textbooks with its own, in which the story is given in a Russian interpretation. All these steps indicate a deliberate move towards annexation, which can be organized through a so-called referendum with false results.. This is exactly what happened in Crimea. Khalilzad writes that Moscow is trying to seize more territory in the south, and recently carried out “several large-scale attacks in different parts of Ukraine, including Kyiv and Odessa.”.

Ukrainian authorities are preparing for a counteroffensive along the entire front line, and especially in the south. They understand that there are no conditions for an acceptable solution yet.. In any negotiations, the actual military situation will be the determining factor.. An acceptable peace agreement requires the situation on the ground to turn in favor of Ukraine. And Kyiv is trying to do this, paying a heavy price with their lives.. The American diplomat agrees that for many reasons, including future stability and order in Europe and the important task of containing China, a political solution to end the war in Ukraine is the most desirable outcome.. But for it to appear, it is necessary to improve Ukraine's ability to create risks for Russia and increase the internal political price for it.. To do this, the West needs to take three steps.

First, it is necessary to contain the Russian escalation and prevent the annexation of Ukrainian territories that have been conquered in recent months.. Successful containment requires raising the price of annexation to a level that exceeds all the benefits that Russia sees from such a move.. One way to force Moscow to reconsider its calculations is for US officials to make it clear that a Russian escalation will necessarily entail more US support for Ukraine.. And this reinforcement will include the transfer of long-range weapons that will allow the Ukrainian army to strike Russian targets throughout the occupied territory, including Crimea and beyond..

Secondly, we need to improve the chances of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to succeed by making sure that the plans are realistic and match the available capabilities.. Deliveries of American weapons, in particular, HIMARS systems, raised Ukrainian morale. Delivering the additional launchers promised by the Biden administration in a timely manner would increase Ukraine's ability to accurately destroy Russian targets at long range..

[see_also ids\u003d"

Thirdly, you need to convince other countries to support Ukraine. The war that Putin unleashed is causing great damage to Russia, Europe and almost the entire world.. But Kyiv and Washington will lose in the information war in Africa and Asia, where Russia selectively " Secretary Blinken announces plans to tour Africa. And that's a good move.. But Ukrainians could talk much better about their situation..

The US should help them get their arguments across in the West, around the world, and even in Russia..

The US should be ready to promote and support a peace settlement. But the Russian side will only take negotiations seriously if it sees serious risks, costs and the threat of potential failure.. A protracted conflict is acceptable for Russia, because in this way it will be able to seize Ukrainian territory meter by meter. To break its cruel logic, you need to move the conflict closer to Russia itself..