People are increasingly asking when the Russian war against Ukraine will end.? When will Vladimir Putin's barbarism end

The answer to these questions mainly depends on Ukraine, but also on the EU, US, UK and other democracies of the world.. In the circle of external forces, the decisive word in the answer should be given by the European Union, since it is located in that part of the world that has suffered the most from Russian aggression against Ukraine..

The Kremlin was sure it could afford to attack a neighboring country. That's why he did it,” writes former Slovak Prime Minister and President of the Wilfrid Martens Center for European Studies Mikulas Dzurinda in an article for EUObserver..

According to the former Slovak politician, Moscow believed that nuclear deterrence between the Russian Federation and the West was tantamount, and therefore not a problem. Also, Russian officials saw that from a military point of view, Europe is gradually disappearing from the world map.. Russia saw that America was losing influence, while China, on the contrary, was on the rise. The Russian side knew that the US would increasingly focus on events in Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea.. Without a doubt, Putin was pleased and reassured by the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan..

“To put it simply, the Kremlin’s respect for the West eventually fell, and for the EU in particular, it completely evaporated.. The military events in Ukraine indicate that we are heading towards a frozen conflict of unprecedented size, with consequences that will be a heavy burden,” writes Dzurinda.

Black Swan script.

The former prime minister of Slovakia recalls how he recently listened to the story of one of the most influential European political scientists that Ukraine will face the fate of Korea. It will actually be divided into two countries with very different fates.. The author agrees that such a Black Swan theory scenario is easy to imagine..

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Especially knowing how long the unrecognized “republic” in Moldovan Transnistria has existed, how Russia has torn Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia, and how quickly it has annexed Crimea. For almost half a century, Europe has not been able to solve the problem of Cyprus (while Turkey is a NATO member and a candidate for EU membership). But can anything be done to prevent the appearance of the \?

Dzurinda writes that the West needs to restore the authority and respect that it enjoyed during the Cold War. However, this time the difference will be that the key role in protecting democracy in Europe and Ukraine as an integral part of the continent should be played by the EU in close cooperation with the UK and the US..

“To put it simply, if we want to divert the “Koreaization” of Ukraine, if we want to return a certain degree of common sense to the Kremlin, then the EU must start building an effective military deterrence.. The days of declarations, global strategies or strategic compasses are over. Either we start building a European Armed Forces with effective capabilities, or Putin's gang and his " And we in Europe will continue to reassure ourselves that the catastrophe is happening only in Ukraine, hoping that Article 5 of NATO is not a paper tiger,” writes the former head of the Slovak government.

Skeptics or so-called " Obviously, Europe with a strong army is not the final prerequisite for ending the war in Ukraine.. However, this is undoubtedly an important prerequisite.. Putin must be made to understand that the EU can not only disconnect from Russian energy sources, but also protect itself and its allies if necessary. It is also quite clear that the position of the European leaders in the negotiations will be very different if it is backed up not only by bags of money, but also by a competent and strong army in combat readiness..

The US will be fully occupied with the Indo-Pacific region, as well as the issues of Iran and North Korea. And everyone will be grateful if Washington can solve these challenges on its own.. But when it comes to challenges in Europe, it is the Europeans who will have to solve them themselves.. It is not easy to simulate the development of events in Ukraine when the European military buildup begins. However, it’s better to “let the soldiers do it”.

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At the same time, politicians must take decisive, principled, responsible and far-sighted decisions.. And the beginning of the formation of European defense capabilities is one of the most urgent decisions.. Maybe some people don't like this idea. But if it is rejected, then the question must immediately be answered: what is the alternative to this?

What remains for Ukraine and EU residents if current insecurity continues?

Of course, political leaders are expected to be able to speak well. But today it's not enough anymore. They must also be able to act decisively. Europe's first step toward self-defence could be France's decision to allow Germany access to its " And Germany, in turn, could spend 50 billion euros, or half of the increase in the annual defense budget, to create the Armed Forces of Europe.