Vladimir Putin wants to stop the war and will seek a truce. But this is a tempting trap for Ukraine and the West, warns Leonid Volkov, head of the headquarters of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny..

According to the German edition of Focus, Volkov described a number of steps that, in his opinion, Putin will take in the near future in the war against Ukraine.. The oppositionist is sure that “Putin will now use his last weapon”. And this weapon is a truce. After the failure of the initial plan to occupy all of Ukraine, Moscow focused on the Donbass, where it began to use “scorched earth tactics” to push the Ukrainian defenders from fortified defense positions.. According to Volkov, Russia will pause this tactic. Because it has exhausted itself after the Ukrainian army got long-range HIMARS systems. This weapon allows Ukrainian defenders to destroy Russian warehouses. That is why Navalny's ally is confident that the Russian autocrat will start seeking a truce.

This is necessary not only to replenish forces and stocks of weapons. In the end, the Ukrainian army will do it too. Putin wants to consolidate the status quo. This will allow him to ensure that Ukraine does not recapture the occupied territories in the south.. In addition, Russian military "

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As soon as the active phase of the war stops, supporters of the idea of \u200b\u200b“a bad peace instead of a good war” will come to the fore in the West.. According to Putin's calculations, Western politicians will be able to praise themselves for " Fuel and food prices will fall. And this is a seductive prospect for many in the West.. The reconquest of territories by the Ukrainian army may lose its popularity in such conditions.

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But how will Putin achieve this truce Indeed, in the current conditions, Ukraine will not agree to this. Volkov explains that this will be done through blackmail. In June, a Russian autocrat already tried to blackmail the West, demanding that they stop supplying the Ukrainian army with weapons in exchange for Moscow not starving the whole world.. Then this Russian pressure did not work.

“But Putin, as you know, has two allies. And since General Golod did not cope with the task, now Field Marshal Kholod will be sent to the front line, ”Volkov emphasized..

According to the Russian oppositionist, Putin will try to scare the Europeans with the prospect of freezing in their homes next winter.. To do this, he activates all the propaganda tools that he has in the West. All in order to push the Europeans to the opinion that no matter how sorry they are for Ukraine, Europe can freeze. Therefore, it is necessary to negotiate with Putin.

Navalny's colleague lists three points on how the West does not fall into this Russian trap. First, he advises " Europe is in for a tough winter.. However, this is " Volkov advises the West not to compromise with Putin. Otherwise, in 6-8 years, Europe will be waiting for a " Because Putin will not stop, but will prepare for revenge. And the new war "

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Secondly, Ukraine needs to be supported in order to achieve rapid success.. The window of opportunity for the liberation of Kherson is not so great. And the closer winter is, the more influential will be the factor of gas blackmail. Quick wins are needed not only by themselves, but also to work with public opinion in Europe. People must believe that Ukraine is capable of winning.

And thirdly, the West should not forget that blackmailing Putin is a manifestation of desperation..

His military adventure failed. Russian autocrat is rapidly losing support inside Russia. He also understands that he has no more than 2-3 months to achieve a truce on favorable terms for Moscow..

“This will probably be the most difficult 2-3 months. But then Putin will suffer a final defeat. He has already lost, of course, but right now he needs to be held and not allowed to crawl away.. To do this, you need to withstand his last blow, ”emphasizes the Russian oppositionist.