There are many escalation options that Vladimir Putin never dared to take, from weapons he never used to targets he never hit.. Because he wants to survive and pave the way for something that will secure power in his hands..

He wants to avoid any war with NATO, conventional or nuclear.. And this is what can turn a likely victory into a guaranteed defeat.. Columnist and writer Holman Jenkins writes about this in an article for the Wall Street Journal.. Putin sacrificed thousands of soldiers for weapons that NATO handed over to Ukraine without ever hitting the alliance's supply lines or personnel.. In 2014, after the start of the war against Ukraine, Russian spies blew up an ammunition depot in the Czech Republic.. But now there were no such cases..

According to the author, this proves that various proposals to use NATO warships to unlock grain exports from Ukraine do not in fact carry any risks.. It is almost certain that Putin will accept. He will pretend that nothing is happening, as well as after the announcement of Sweden and Finland about their intention to join NATO. In cases where Putin can't do anything about challenge or failure, he pretends he doesn't exist..

Therefore, the problem of implementing such a project is different, in particular, the consent of Turkey, as well as the readiness of a sufficient number of NATO countries to take part in the unblocking of Odessa, so that this proves the collective determination of the alliance. The pre-war lethargy of the allies has not yet been dispelled. The author is convinced that the unblocking of Ukrainian grain exports will not greatly affect the cost of food. Ukraine and Russia account for a third of wheat exports. But these exports make up only 7% of everything that is produced in the world.. In addition, Russia steals and exports Ukrainian grain.

20 million tons of Ukrainian wheat, which they talk about in Washington, is 2.5% of world production. Jenkins believes that the problems of poor countries have arisen mainly due to the consequences of quarantines in connection with COVID-19 and Western fiscal and monetary maneuvers.. Local food prices hit by double whammy of inflation and stronger dollar.

“What unblocking Odessa can really expose is that almost any strong NATO intervention will force Putin to judiciously back down.. At the same time, propaganda will convince his people that all the results are evidence of his will and strength.. This is the best reason to step forward and not spread the wrong grain supply panic signal,” the author writes..

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In his opinion, the West is capable of isolating Russia. And every day this task becomes easier. The cost of adaptation will be irrevocable, but the world will continue to live on. NATO economies are 25 times larger than Russia's. For them, the pricing mechanism is an ally. Price signals in energy markets change the direction of consumption and investment flow. At the raw material market, they will tell farmers that it is time to cultivate more land and change the mix of crops they grow.. Consumers of raw materials will understand the need to invest in efficiency and substitutes. Governments and non-governmental humanitarian organizations, in turn, will see where help is needed. This adaptation willy-nilly is taking place and can be helped by changes in policies on standards for renewable fuels, land use regulation, environmental inspection and market distribution of water.. Stupid gestures like hoarding grain by imposing a ban on its export should be avoided (India is already doing this).

Pressure on the economy and domestic politics of Russia, as well as on its internal world, will have to be built for a long time. But he will be ugly. Putin is not aware of this obvious reality. He knows that the turmoil in the West's economy due to sanctions against Russia is a depleting asset for him.. Adaptation is already happening. Pretty soon there will be stakeholders who will benefit from the expulsion of Russia. Society will accept and get used to the inconvenience. In a year or two, the very idea of \u200b\u200breturning Russian energy resources, grain or minerals to the world market will be considered harmful rather than vice versa.. A Russian resource that has remained untapped for the past two decades is Putin's high ability to retreat. When the war with Ukraine didn't go as planned, he narrowed his ambitions to focus on the Donbass.. He hopes that there he will be able to declare victory, as well as a truce, at any moment when the wave of war unfolds against him..

Of course, the tacit confidence of some officials in the West that the war is already over, although the shooting continues, remains an obstacle.. The decision is not far off, regardless of whether Ukraine launches a counteroffensive in the fall. Some are ready to silently agree to Putin's illegal occupation of eastern Ukraine. And perhaps this is the biggest reason why members of the Western alliance are in no hurry to inflict another defeat on Putin by unblocking grain exports through Odessa..

Recall that the Russian Federation is blocking the export of grain from Ukrainian ports and, meanwhile, is stealing elevators in the occupied territories..

Under pressure from the world community to unblock sea routes from our country, it became known that Ankara and Moscow reached a preliminary agreement on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products through the Black Sea. At the same time, these states did not coordinate the issue with Kyiv, and Turkey itself is one of the countries that buys grain stolen by Russians in Ukraine.

Subsequently, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko warned that Russia cannot be trusted when it insists that it will give "