Emmanuel Macron, recently re-elected French President, has lost his parliamentary majority. Runoff predictions made by the Ipsos group show that Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance won just 230 seats, well short of the required 289 seats.. This means a significant drop in support from the 350 seats that Macron and his allies won in 2017 in the French parliament.. The president now faces an extremely difficult and uncertain second term, The Economist writes..
Elisabeth Bourne, the prime minister, looked quite capable of getting a seat in Normandy. But a number of Macron's other close allies have lost their seats, including Richard Ferrand, speaker of parliament, and Christophe Castaner, his former interior minister.. A number of Macron ministers are expected to resign without gaining voter confidence.
Even in its diminished state, the Ensemble will remain the largest party in Parliament.. But poor sociological numbers mean Macron's group is only slightly larger than Jean-Luc Melenchon's radical left alliance, the New People's Ecological and Social Union (NUPES). Melenchon, a 70-year-old former Trotskyist, stitched together a group for this election, absorbing socialists, communists and greens. With support from voters who have sought to both sanction Macron and limit his powers, NUPES looks set to win 149 seats..
Melenchon campaigned under the slogan: " Even before the vote, Macron ruled it out. But NUPES will not only replace the centre-right Republicans as the main parliamentary opposition.; now it will be a serious parliamentary force that will seek to block any legislative initiative that it does not like. Melenchon's result is a coup for the French left, which has been plagued by internal squabbles for years. This time around, various parties on the left have put aside their many political differences over issues like Europe or nuclear power to create opposition to Macron..
The biggest surprise of the evening was the result of Marine Le Pen. The National Populist Party hit its best record ever, looking good for a whopping 85 seats, ten times more than the eight it won in 2017 and even more than the Republicans.. NUPES - coalition; The National Rally is likely to be a greater parliamentary force than any of its constituent parties.. This confirms the transformation of French party politics into three blocs: a center dominated by Macron; left-wing radicals and right-wing nationalists.
The result is a serious and astonishing blow to the President of France.. Before embarking last week on a tour of Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Macron urged voters to give him a " But voters seemed determined to limit the president's ability to do what he wants and force him to govern differently and take into account other political views..
Macron now faces tough choices ahead of a second term, including whether to replace his new prime minister. One option for the president would be to try to rule with a minority government, as Michel Rocard, the former prime minister, did under Francois Mitterrand in 1988-1991.. However, Rocard used the constitutional provision known as 49-3 28 times, allowing him to effectively bypass Parliament on many occasions.. The rules governing this rule have become much stricter: in addition to budgetary legislation, it can only be used once during each session of Parliament.. Instead, Macron will need to rely heavily on ad hoc support from other MPs if he can find it..
An alternative to the president could be an attempt to form a coalition with all the political compromises that entail. Together with the Republicans and their centre-right associates, who are estimated to have won about 78 seats, he would theoretically have won a majority.. However, before the second round, they refused to call on their supporters to support Macron's candidates in the fight against Melenchon's candidates..
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None of the options will lead to a stable government or sound policies.. Macron may have to throw away or rework some of his promises, including a plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 or 65..
The enthusiasm with which voters supported Melenchon, who promised to lower the retirement age to 60, hints at public opinion about Macron's plan.. Amid the Yellow Vest Rebellion, COVID-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting spike in inflation, the 44-year-old president had a tumultuous first term.. His second is likely to be even more tumultuous.
Earlier it was reported that Macron will have a tough fight for control of parliament, now it will be difficult for him to continue reforms in France.