History teaches that wars usually have unpredictable consequences and various side effects away from the battlefield.. For example, the American Civil War turned out to be fateful for Central Asia.. Russia tightened control over the region to supply cotton from it, which stopped coming from the slave-owning American states.

Central Asia is again experiencing the side effects of war, but this time the one that Vladimir Putin unleashed against Ukraine, Bloomberg writes.. Russia's worsening economic outlook could leave millions of Central Asians out of work, sapping strong cash flows to their home countries. But the problems of these people can further harm the Russian Federation itself..

Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan receive large incomes from energy sales. But their neighbors - Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan - cannot provide enough jobs for their citizens.. Therefore, they are looking for an opportunity to earn money abroad.. Last year, the Russian Federation had 8 million labor migrants from these three countries. In 2021, guest worker remittances accounted for 34% of Tajikistan’s GDP, up from 33% in the case of Kyrgyzstan, according to World Bank data. In Uzbekistan, workers' money accounted for just under 12% of GDP in 2020. Sanctions imposed on Russia by the US, EU and other countries around the world will undermine these critical payments for Central Asia. And as long as Putin wages his unjustified war, the disruption of trade will further harm the countries of the region..

[see_also ids\u003d"

Bloomberg admits war against Ukraine could permanently sever Russia's ties with Central Asia. Much evidence already indicates that supply chains in the region are already starting to shift towards China and Turkey.. Financial ties with Moscow are also weakening. The Kazakh branch of Sberbank reported this month that its debt portfolio fell by $1.7 billion in April.. And this is after Sberbank, as well as Alfa-Bank and VTB, lost $4.5 billion in deposits in February and March..

The consequences of the war for Russia's economic relations with Central Asia could potentially accelerate the region's full transition into China's orbit. Although this trend became very noticeable in December. While Moscow is mired in a war of attrition against Ukraine's bitter defenders, China is celebrating three decades of relations with the independent countries of Central Asia.. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi traveled to Kazakhstan this week to meet with counterparts from four other countries in the region.. The arrival of the Chinese diplomat laid the foundation for the visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which will take place in the autumn. It will be a major diplomatic and geopolitical statement given that the Chinese leader has avoided G20 meetings since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic..

Pivot to China may offset lost jobs in Russia to some extent. However, the influx of workers back to Central Asia could trigger social and economic upheavals in their home countries..

“The ability to send young unemployed men to work in Russia gave countries in the region the opportunity to reduce tension. After all, you can hardly expect anything good when the majority of the population is youth without work,” said Diplomat editor Katherine Patz..

[see_also ids\u003d"

Before attacking neighboring Ukraine, Russia showed the world its attentiveness to Central Asia. In particular, she intervened in the situation in Kazakhstan when protests broke out last January..

But now Putin's broken army is mired in Ukraine. Just at a time when Chinese security interests are only growing in the region. Defense Minister Wei Fenghe signaled Beijing's potential willingness to lend a helping hand during a visit to Kazakhstan in April, noting that China firmly opposes any "

The bottom line is that the war against Ukraine severely undermines Russia's economic and financial relations with Central Asia.. And there is a vacuum that China is ready to fill..