The West has two goals in the war that Moscow has unleashed against Ukraine: firstly, to preserve Ukrainian sovereignty, and secondly, to prevent Russia from organizing similar attacks against European countries in the future..

However, there are terrible battles in the Donbass. And there is a temptation to support any step that will hasten the end of this nightmare.. No wonder there are calls for an early truce. At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that it is very important not to “humiliate” Russia for the invasion it organized.. The former head of MI6, John Savers, writes about this in an article for the Financial Times, recalling that Ukraine reacted harshly to the comments of the French leader..

The problem is that a truce now would cement Russian military gains on the ground.. There is no reason to believe that Vladimir Putin will agree to back down.. The occupiers are actively engaged in the " Putin has played such games before. In 2008, the diplomatic efforts of French President Nicolas Sarkozy helped negotiate a truce in Georgia, but at the cost of maintaining Russian occupation of two regions of the country.. Georgia never regained full sovereignty, losing control over these territories.

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The same thing happened in Ukraine in 2014. After the fall of the pro-Russian government in Kyiv, amid mass protests, the Russian army occupied Crimea and parts of Donbas. Sarkozy's successor, President Francois Hollande, along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, negotiated an agreement with Putin that created a Russian-loyal political process over Donbass and left Russian control in Crimea intact.. These agreements were imposed on the Ukrainian president, allowing Russia to consolidate its military achievements. Today the Ukrainian authorities are ready to fight further. And she certainly does not want a truce now, at the height of the Russian military offensive..

It is not known what Macron actually meant when he said that one should not “humiliate” Putin. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger recently said the peace process should begin in the coming months.. The Ukrainian side fears such comments are a prelude to another round of diplomatic efforts aimed at securing a premature ceasefire that would allow Putin to “save face” at the cost of Ukraine..

What about the position of Putin himself? It was clear from the first week of the war that he had made a monumental mistake in launching this invasion.. His security chiefs struggled to show their support for the aggression.. And many of them share Putin's desire to conquer Ukraine.. But they, too, will see that he hurt Russia's long-term interests.. The economy will be under sanctions as long as Putin is in power. Europe will gradually end its dependence on Russian energy and never return. And the wealth accumulated by people around Putin will never return to their hands.. Therefore, the positions of the Russian autocrat will weaken. Failed wars usually do not prolong the ruler's power.

Former MI6 director admits Putin could be eliminated at some point. Though it's unlikely to happen soon. Russian autocrat needs support from his intelligence chiefs. But failures in Ukraine led to a conflict between the two pillars of his regime: the FSB and the army.. Some leaders may touch on the purges, as happened in the history of Russia. Discontent and criticism on a personal level will spread. Ukraine calls for Russian defeat. Again, it is not known what this means in practice.. But such a call already contradicts Macron's words that Putin should not be humiliated..

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France has provided valuable military support to Ukraine and backed EU sanctions against Russia. But it is surprising that Macron did not bother to visit Kyiv during more than 100 days of the war, although he continues to constantly call Putin.

French companies are the most reluctant to leave Russia, hoping that if they stay, it will bring them some benefit in the future.. It should not be surprising that the Ukrainian side is concerned about Macron's intentions.

If another round of European diplomacy once again secures all of Russia's military achievements in Ukraine, Putin will regain political strength at home and feel confident to stage new military adventures.. Ukrainians continue to fight and need long-term support in the form of advanced weapons and tougher sanctions against Russia. This means that there are still several months of fierce battles ahead.. But a premature truce will help Putin wrest victory from the jaws of defeat.. None of the leaders of the West should help him.