Western allies regularly discuss terms for ceasefire in Ukraine - CNN

04 June 2022, 12:45 | Peace
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Western allies meet regularly to develop a potential plan to end Russia's war against Ukraine. Looking to the prospect of a prolonged stalemate in the war, the US and allies are once again emphasizing the need for a negotiated settlement for a ceasefire, writes CNN.

U.S. officials have been regularly meeting with their British and European counterparts in recent weeks to discuss potential terms for a negotiated ceasefire and war, multiple sources told CNN..

Among the topics of discussion was the four-point peace plan proposed by Italy late last month.. The plan provides for Ukraine's commitment to neutrality in exchange for certain security guarantees and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia over the future of Crimea and Donbas..

Ukraine does not take a direct part in these negotiations, despite the US promise " U.S. and Ukrainian officials said the U.S. did not pressure Ukraine into a specific plan or push Kyiv into negotiations with Russia..

However, there is some confusion as to which "

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas Greenfield told reporters earlier this week that the Italian plan is " But two U.S. officials told CNN that the U.S. doesn't really support Italy's proposal..

In any case, US and Western officials tell CNN there is growing concern that if the Russians and Ukrainians do not return to negotiations and reach an agreement, the war will drag on – potentially for years..

It is not clear whether these discussions will turn into final settlement talks. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden still sees no realistic prospect of any diplomatic breakthroughs or a ceasefire anytime soon, and two NATO officials said the Western alliance sees no desire to negotiate with the Ukrainian side - in part because Russia's brutal bombing campaign.

Moscow also has little interest in serious talks, officials say.. Ukraine is now focused on securing a decisive military victory in the east and south to put itself in a higher negotiating position, the sources say..

Officials cautiously said the US is not pushing for Ukraine to hand over any territory to Russia.. One source said that if the US and the West pressured Ukraine to negotiate, it would undermine Kyiv's leverage..

Longer war, higher costs.

According to intelligence and military officials, the war could drag on for many months, if not years.. Officials with access to the latest intelligence told CNN they do not expect Russia or Ukraine to achieve significant breakthroughs in combat anytime soon..

Now this impasse provides an opportunity for the US to slowly weaken Russia.. But the longer the war drags on, the higher the cost to the West will be, and the Biden administration will face a greater challenge in helping Ukraine and finding stable replacements for Russian oil and gas..

The issue is especially relevant against the backdrop of the election season, as gas prices continue to rise in large part due to measures taken by the West to stop imports of Russian oil and gas..

This led to a discussion within the US administration about how far sanctions could be taken.. Some officials are concerned that tough new moves, such as imposing secondary sanctions on countries that do not comply with Russia's energy export restrictions, could further rattle energy markets..

There is a growing perception that the sanctions will not be a knockout for Russia, but rather a chokehold that could take years to have meaningful consequences, said one senior official..

As the United States seeks to maintain military and financial support for Ukraine, and to isolate Russia for as long as it takes to reach a peace deal, keeping the alliance united will be a key strategy.. But already, sources say, cracks are appearing in NATO - Turkey refuses to allow Sweden and Finland to move forward with joining the alliance, and diplomats had to make an exception for Hungary as part of Europe's recent oil embargo against Russia..




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