The United States and its allies have pledged virtually unlimited support to Ukraine, re-equipping the Ukrainian army, largely to NATO standards.. What will be the next stage of the war? The answer to this question was sought by experts who gathered on May 12 at the Institute for International Policy Studies, Voice of America reports..

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To date, the prospect of a war in Ukraine appears to Russia at best as a " Or defeat. I don't think the Russians have any further offensive potential under the current conditions, continues Michael Kofman. “The course of this war is not sustainable for Russia, and it has become a war of attrition – especially given the Ukrainian level of mobilization, access to Western weapons and the quality of logistics.”.

A number of experts made assumptions in connection with the significant date for the Kremlin on May 9. It was believed that Putin could reclassify the " He did not escalate further, although he did not retreat at all.. As Kofman aptly put it, he "

“It’s not clear if the Russians will be able to achieve any significant success at all, to make any real breakthrough, for example, to carry out the encirclement of Ukrainian forces,” says Rob Lee, senior fellow at the Eurasian Program at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies.. - The Russian army initially did not have a sufficient numerical advantage at the operational and even tactical level for real success. This is the reason for the slow progress.. The most obvious solution to the problem - some form of mobilization - carries enormous risks for Putin, and it is not clear whether the mobilization of conscripts and reservists will be militarily effective..

“General mobilization would be a mistake for Russia,” says Michael Kofman. - And therefore the Russian military is not focused on it. This is not the Soviet army for a long time! Now the Russian leadership is trying to increase the level of staffing of battalion tactical groups by offering lucrative contracts for short-term service (up to four months) with a fairly significant payment to the contractor, probably pushing former conscripts to switch to the contract. They also hunt for new contract soldiers among the reservists.. All these efforts will only exacerbate the problems their army faces on the battlefield."

In recent years, first of all, the Aerospace Forces, the Navy, and other relatively “intellect-intensive” sectors that required lengthy training were recruited with contract servicemen.. Personnel holes in the infantry and logistics were plugged by untrained conscript soldiers or civilian personnel. This led, experts say, to a disastrous situation with the rear, logistics, transport.. Those more than two hundred and fifty thousand conscripts that are formally at the disposal of the Russian army are not suitable for this kind of hostilities.. And contractors - in the conditions of an undeclared war, have the right to break their contracts.

“In order to mobilize on a larger scale, you need to declare a state of war or change laws, and Putin did none of this,” Kofman recalls.. “That would probably be the most unpleasant and risky decision for him.”. In addition to domestic political risks, Kofman points to economic ones: even partial mobilization will deal a blow to the Russian economy, and Russia will lose at least 10% of GDP in 2022 due to sanctions..

Lacking qualified manpower, coupled with a general shortage of numbers, the Russian army attempted to advance on three different fronts at the start of the war.. “And you can see what a fiasco it ended in,” Kofman states.. – The experience of the Cold War taught Russia quite differently: within the framework of that doctrine, the armed forces did not need either the logistics for a prolonged ground offensive, or the rear resources necessary to hold significant areas of the terrain. The USSR intended to wage war on a fragmented battlefield, with maneuverable units with an emphasis on missile defense, air defense, and missile strikes against auxiliary means.. The Russian army did not focus on urban combat, they did not build a structure to control the territory. They have no options for a sudden deployment of additional forces into the combat space with good chances of defeating the Ukrainian military. The Russian armed forces do not have a further offensive potential, ”the expert concludes..

The further course of events " The Kremlin is delaying the decision: the Russian political leadership is a master of half measures, says Michael Kofman. “But by doing this they make their situation even worse, and this could be a strategic and catastrophic defeat for Russia.”.

Until March 29, before the Istanbul talks, where Ukraine made acceptable compromise offers to Russia, “Russia had the opportunity to get out of the war with some benefits,” says Rob Lee.. – Ukraine was open to certain concessions. Putin could leave with some goals achieved, such as the neutrality of Ukraine, the postponed issue of Donbass. But Putin did not go for it, which was a political, but alas, not a military decision..

Time is working for Ukraine, says Lee. “The longer the war goes on, the more resilient Ukraine will become.. The question is no longer about letting Ukraine survive, but about helping it win.”.

Ukraine is gradually moving to offensive actions. Having pushed back Russian artillery from Kharkiv and generally held off the offensive in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, it may then try to return Kherson, experts say. The city is located on the western bank of the Dnieper and you can try to force the Russian troops to retreat across the river, to keep them behind a water barrier.

However, the Russian army will not melt away just like that, analysts remind. “War based on attrition usually favors the side that is tactically defensive,” notes Kofman.. The Ukrainians will have to break down Russian defenses, and under these conditions, Russian aviation can become more effective, try to establish local air superiority, provide close air support. This is where Ukraine is severely limited.”. Perhaps Kyiv will decide to wait and accumulate more equipment coming from the West, to form reserves. “Success will depend on who can best provide sustainable logistics, provision of ammunition. The rules of the game for Ukraine will change,” Kofman sums up..

Despite the heavy losses in tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, which are quite large, but not yet critical - in aviation, Russia, analysts say, still has significant stocks of cruise missiles.. “The problem they encountered in their use,” says Michael Kofman, “is more related to target designation, intelligence, than the actual characteristics of the missile.”.

An increasing threat to Ukraine is also the outflow of the population, which will exacerbate the decline in production, which, according to various estimates, can reach 30-50% in 2022.. The military-economic blockade deprives it of the Black Sea ports, so necessary for export. “Russia can implement this commercial blockade in a number of ways.. You don’t even need Snake Island for this, Kofman believes.. – You will not find anyone today who will insure a commercial vessel for passage to the port of Odessa. This is reality. Ukraine will have a hard time finding investors and will also suffer a talent drain for the foreseeable future.”.

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“Ukraine has suffered considerable losses,” Kofman recalls.. – We often focus on Russian losses and almost never talk about what is happening to Ukrainian troops, partly because we don’t have enough data. But the losses on the Ukrainian side are also not small.. Overall, the balance in the equation is more favorable for Ukraine, at least on the current trajectory of the conflict and to the extent that the West supports it.. Russia is not able to continue in the same spirit, and it will have to make an important choice.

This will be a real loss for the Russian armed forces, for their reputation in the international arena and within the country.. It will take many years for the Russian military to recover from it.. We don't know if we are near the beginning, in the middle or near the end of the war.. In fact, the situation could become much worse for the Russian military.. So at the moment, Ukraine has every incentive to work, because they have legitimate reasons to win, ”concludes Michael Kofman with optimism.