Before the celebration of May 9, Russia does not seem to win the desired victory in the war against Ukraine. And each of her potential next steps is very dangerous.. After a failed attempt to attack Kyiv, Moscow has focused on trying to seize more territory in the Ukrainian east.. Although her army is approaching total exhaustion, and sanctions are intensifying at this time.

“Given the forces they have left, the current breakthrough attempt is all they can do.. Armies do not recover so quickly after such heavy losses.. And in view of the effectiveness of the Ukrainians with our support, I do not think that Russia is able to achieve its goals in the coming weeks.. And the coming weeks will tell exactly where this is leading,” Jeffrey Edmonds, former director of Russia affairs at the US National Security Council and CNA analyst, told The Guardian..

Judging by all the defeats, officials believe that Vladimir Putin is using the celebration of Victory Day to “re-wrap” the war against Ukraine. Potential options include escalation through a formal declaration of war or the start of a general mobilization, and de-escalation through a declaration of victory.. It is also possible that Putin can do something in between. He can praise the Russian army for the “victory” in Ukraine, but at the same time begin to prepare the population for the fact that a difficult and debilitating conflict will become the new status quo.. Ukrainian officials have warned lately that Putin is about to launch a mass mobilization or openly declare war against Ukraine, bringing in personnel and resources that were not available for the so-called “special operation.”.

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“Russia is already conducting secret mobilization and is preparing to announce the start of open mobilization in the near future.. I just wonder how they will explain it to their people? "

Kremlin denies preparing mobilization. Although documents have already been published on the net, indicating the preparation of such a campaign. Since March in Russia began to set fire to military registration and enlistment offices. In particular, last week it happened in Nizhnevartovsk. Due to formal mobilization for men of military age, the borders will suddenly become closed. And tens of thousands of reservists will have to quit their jobs and go to war. Moscow has never been able to do anything like this.. For the Russian economy, this will also be a powerful blow, which will increase the price of the war, which has already become a disappointment for Russia..

“Proclamation of mobilization will make this war extremely unpopular,” says Russian military expert Pavel Luzin. He doubts that it will be technically impossible to conduct it.

\? Which officers and military units will deal with them? "

According to Edmonds, mobilization is not a " After all, by the time new troops are ready to go to the front, Russian positions on the ground will already be defeated. Fearing defeat, Russia may also try to raise the stakes even higher. Recently, the main Russian propagandist Dmitry Kiselev, on Russian television, showed a video simulation of the nuclear annihilation of Great Britain. Putin, too, may hint at a potential nuclear war when he stands in front of armored vehicles on Red Square. On his orders, the nuclear arsenal has been taking part in the parade since 2008..

" So I wouldn't be surprised if he resorts to nuclear rhetoric,"

At the same time, the expert doubts that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine.. However, he noticed that the Kremlin is becoming more and more unpredictable..

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According to another scenario, due to the lack of potential for victory, Putin may de-escalate. Speaking to the military tomorrow, he may announce that Russia has achieved its main goals in Ukraine. That Ukrainian military capabilities have already allegedly been destroyed, and Mariupol and Kherson have been taken under control. However, all this will also be difficult to “sell” to the Russians.. Since the Ukrainian army may continue to try to retake the occupied territories, inflicting even greater losses on the Russian army. A senior Russian official traveled to Kherson last week and announced that Russia had "

University College London professor Ben Noble noted that the Kremlin has so far been very vague about the goals of the war.. This means that many people in Russia will be dissatisfied with whatever Putin ultimately calls victory..

“This is probably the main reason why many now say that the Kremlin is in a dead end.. Because it will inevitably disappoint certain groups, whatever the claimed victory in the broader sense,"

According to Noble, the high expectations from Putin's speech on May 9 speak of the great confusion of those outside the Kremlin.. And not necessarily tomorrow the Russian autocrat will announce something important.

“People want to find a sense of certainty, they want a new section of this war,” Noble said..

Political and economic pressure could force the Kremlin to end the war. But a long and debilitating conflict may seem better to the Russian authorities than an admission of defeat..

" Because sociologists tell us that the Russians want everything to end, but somehow it’s good for them,” said political scientist Anton Barbashin.

“But I expect he will have to announce some new challenges. It can't be just victory, there will be something else. Many things are happening. And Putin is well aware that economic risks and problems will soon intensify.. Therefore, a clear vision is needed that Russia is facing a challenge,” he said..

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This " And it seems to justify military defeats.

The Kremlin also faces an ideological challenge. Because the war is already affecting ordinary Russians who do not understand why Russia invaded Ukraine in the first place..

“The more I think about it, the more I am surprised by the fact that this war has exposed Russia's lack of any ideology at all.. The government is trying to come up with something new. But everything is pointless. The Russians don’t understand what the hell Russia is doing there,” Barbashin said..