Declaring war and mobilization would mean admitting Putin's inability to wage war with modern methods - not with numbers, but with skill, say experts interviewed by Voice of America.

A possible official declaration of war on Ukraine on May 9 will give Putin grounds to declare general or partial mobilization. Its goal is to make up for the heavy losses that the Russian army suffers every day during the so-called “special operation”, and try to achieve a turning point in its favor, which does not exist..

Earlier, US Permanent Representative to the OSCE Michael Carpenter warned that Moscow might decide to annex part of the territories in eastern Ukraine, including Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions by May 9. Kremlin denies general mobilization plans.

It is extremely difficult to predict how events will develop, because one can expect anything from President Putin, and he has convincingly proved this to everyone, said Vyacheslav Bakhmin, co-chairman of the Moscow Helsinki Group, founder of the Sakharov Center, in a commentary to the Voice of America Russian Service.. At the same time, according to him, the option of officially declaring war on Ukraine seems so wild and fraught with such serious consequences that one does not want to consider it seriously..

“In any case, I really hope that nothing like this happens,” he added.. - Because otherwise it brings both the country and Europe, if not the world as a whole, to the brink of disaster, as I see it... This means that a decision has been made at the top to bring the war to victory by any means, which would be terrible. I hope that there is still a less bloody way out of the situation.”.

True, everyone hoped that there would be no attack on Ukraine, Vyacheslav Bakhmin recalls: “Well, general mobilization is possible only after the declaration of war. These are related things.. At the same time, it is clear that mobilization is a completely different level of conflict, and there will be no point in talking about a “special operation” here.. And this means that, perhaps, the attitude towards the situation within the country will also change radically.. After all, it’s one thing, sitting in front of the TV, to support a “special”, as the media say, operation with “pinpoint strikes” on the infrastructure of the “Nazis” who have dug in in Ukraine, and it’s quite another to start a full-scale war with a neighboring state. No wonder the word " Precisely because the reaction of the population to this word is extremely negative.”.

“The rejection of a virtual war and its transfer to a real course with mobilization and a large number of victims that will inevitably appear is fraught with unpredictable consequences for the Kremlin. It is able to radically change the perception of what is happening by the majority of the population,” summed up the co-chair of the Moscow Helsinki Group.

According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin, a declaration of war and mobilization will be a sign of great trouble.. “Because then it is de facto recognized that it is impossible to fight with skill, and you have to return to the old Soviet model - to fight in numbers, in the old fashioned way,” he stressed to Voice of America.. – But this is an attempt with unsuitable means. Modern warfare is so arranged that the size of the army is not a decisive factor. Everything is decided by modern types of weapons, the level of intelligence, communications, and so on.. If the mobilization does take place, it will indicate that the Kremlin recognizes its inability to fit into the context of modern warfare. Ukraine does not have a draft army.

They pay the military there, and serious money, and there is no shortage of soldiers. That is why Ukraine has more chances to win.”.

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According to Western intelligence estimates, the Russian army has lost at least ten thousand people since the invasion of Ukraine.. According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine - over 22 thousand. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has not updated reports on the dead and wounded for more than a month.