Russia is stuck again. Its offensive in the second phase of the war against Ukraine never became the “greatest tank battle since World War II,” as some analysts predicted.. The Russian ground forces, on the other hand, demonstrated the same low efficiency, failing to break through in all directions..

Newsweek writes about this, recalling that many experts attach special importance to May 9, when Russia will celebrate the victory over Nazi Germany.. They believe that by that day, Moscow will either find some way to declare victory and end the fighting, or move from a “special military operation” to a “war.”. The second would mean conducting a large-scale mobilization to defeat Ukraine.

However, on the ground, Russian troops are scattered, exhausted and do not seem to have regained their strength.. The US military and intelligence told Newsweek that the big offensive in the south that everyone was waiting for had already reached a stalemate.. Neither side can completely defeat the enemy.

“Russia is once again relying on long-range airstrikes, artillery and rocket fire to help its ground forces advance.. But she cannot support the offensive along the entire giant front line that she herself created.. Extremely motivated Ukrainian troops not only hold the enemy, but also advance in some directions. And they see the enemy getting bogged down. Yes, Russia is fighting, but Ukraine is winning,” an unnamed US Army officer told the publication..

Newsweek writes that the second stage of the Russian war against Ukraine began on April 18. The Kremlin announced that the main goal would be the capture of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which the Russian army occupied only partially in 2014.. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that Russian forces tried to break through the Ukrainian defense "

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Kharkiv - the second largest city in Ukraine - has great symbolic and strategic importance. Since a communication line runs through it from the western part of Russia to the battlefield in the Ukrainian east. After launching heavy artillery and rocket attacks, Russian troops are trying to tighten their grip on the Ukrainian army, encircling it from Kharkiv in the north to occupied Donetsk in the south.. Newsweek compares the shape of the Russian offensive line to a " At the two ends of this form, forces are trying to unite in a circle in order to isolate the territory between them, that is, the remnants of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions.

For the success of such a “vice”, it is necessary to completely defeat the defenders of Ukraine in the almost completely destroyed Mariupol, analysts say. This made it possible to release almost 20% of the total forces of Russia. About 10 battalion-tactical groups of the Russian army are concentrated in the city. Last Thursday, Putin announced that after 53 days of war, Mariupol had already been “liberated”. So it's time for the army to move on.

“There is no need to climb into these catacombs and crawl through the basements of this factory. Block it so that a fly doesn’t fly through,” he said, referring to Azovstal, where about 2,000 Ukrainians remain, more than half of them civilians..

Putin was answered by the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade of Ukraine Serhiy Volyn, whose unit is still fighting in the city.

“No matter what Russian propaganda tells you, we still fight hard every day and hold back thousands of enemy troops, preventing him from advancing.. And this is at the cost of superhuman efforts and heavy losses,” said the Ukrainian commander.

The defenders of Mariupol are still holding out. Newsweek writes that as of Sunday, the Russian " Russian airstrikes intensify. In addition, Russian forces have stepped up their artillery and rocket attacks, firing more than a thousand rockets a day.. But despite this, the Russian forces advanced only in some places for several kilometers, losing as much territory as they captured.. But Russia seems to have decided to open another front besides Donbass. The commander of the Central Military District, Rustam Minnekaev, told Russian media that the task of the Russian army is to establish " US intelligence regarded this as a new definition of Moscow's mission.. But this task is very difficult..

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The new southern front extends for 400 kilometers from Donetsk to Nikolaev, which is equal to the distance from New York to Niagara Falls on the border with Canada. Russian forces here are better provided by supplies from the occupied Crimea. And they seem to be stronger than those units that have concentrated on the Donbass. But the powerful resistance of Ukraine stopped them too. Moscow suffered the most losses over the past week closer to the Russian border near Kharkov. Despite powerful artillery shelling and air strikes on residential areas, the perimeter under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine around the city only expanded. Ukraine was also able to liberate a number of towns and villages in the Kharkiv region, as the head of the regional state administration Oleg Sinegubov said.. According to US intelligence, Russia has already abandoned its intention to capture Kharkov, just as it happened in the battle for Kyiv..

Experts say the main issue is the density of forces on the battlefield. That is, how many units Russia can gather and force to work together. During the two months of the war, Putin's army has demonstrated a weak ability to coordinate the efforts of individual combat groups or command large formations.. Logistical problems, due to which the Russian military lacks ammunition, fuel and even food, have not been resolved. The environmental factor also does not play into the hands of Russia. Demoralization remains a problem.

Therefore, at the beginning of the second week of the so-called second phase of the war against Ukraine, Russian forces are again divided between the northern, southern and eastern fronts around the Donbass.. Meanwhile, fighting in Mariupol continues. In addition, part of the force is now thinly spread along the 400-kilometer front in the south. Newsweek does not rule out that in the next two weeks Putin will be able to make some limited progress in the Donbass to declare victory on May 9. But in general, the situation on the ground is rather sad for him.. Therefore, in order to continue the war, he will have to resort to the second scenario of events after Victory Day, namely, to declare a general mobilization in Russia.

“Given the loss of about 20,000 troops on the Russian side, as well as the weakness of domestic support to continue fighting, it is unlikely that a successful national mobilization will be possible,” an unnamed Pentagon official told the publication..

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However, last week, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) experts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds noted in their report that instead of using May 9 to declare "

“Without a nationwide mobilization, I think the battle for Donbass will be the last big offensive that the Russian army is capable of, given its current state and available forces.. Whether it succeeds in Donbas or not, the Russian military will be depleted in terms of offensive capability,” said Michael Kofman, director of the Russian Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis in Washington..

The defense of Mariupol by Ukraine also exhausted many Russian units and reduced their combat capability, British military intelligence said..

Having met a fierce rebuff in Ukraine, the Kremlin abandoned the plan to seize Kyiv and plant its puppet government there.. Moscow announced that initially its main goal was to reach the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as to create a land corridor from Crimea to the Donbass. What prospects await the invaders in the near future Tatyana Silina told in the article “The Battle for Donbass: Why Putin Must Lose”?