It's hard to believe, but it's already impossible to deny that the broad rules that underpinned the stability and prosperity of the post-Cold War world were seriously undermined by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.. To a large extent, these rules relied on the ability of the West to coexist with Putin, who played the role of a “bad guy” and tested the world order for a fortress, but never grossly violated his rules..
But by arranging an unjustified invasion of Ukraine, destroying cities and massively killing Ukrainian civilians, the Russian autocrat ceased to be a “bad guy” and became a “war criminal”. The leader of Russia, stretching across 11 time zones with its vast reserves of oil, gas, minerals and nuclear warheads, must now become an international pariah. It means the world we knew has changed a lot. And nothing will be the same again, writes the New York Times.
How can the world expect the UN to be effective when a country led by a war criminal sits on the Security Council and can veto any resolution? How can the world effectively fight climate change without the cooperation of the largest country on the planet? How the US can work with Russia to resolve the issue of Iran's nuclear program when there is no trust in Moscow? How to isolate and weaken such a vast country, knowing that its collapse can be no less dangerous than when it is strong? How to feed and power the world when Russia is among the largest exporters of oil, wheat and mineral fertilizers? The answer to all these questions is one: no one knows. This means that we are entering a period of geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainty, which has not been since 1989, and maybe since 1939.. And the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.. Because Putin is now a cornered animal. Not only did he miscalculate terribly by launching an invasion of Ukraine, but he also provoked consequences opposite to what he wanted.. Therefore, he is desperate to win at least some kind of military victory at any cost so that it hides his failure..
Putin claimed he was starting a war against Ukraine to push NATO away from Russia. But with his aggression, he only breathed life into the Western military alliance, which was experiencing stagnation.. Allies will now be consolidated and invest in rearmament while Putin is in power, and maybe another generation after that.. Russian autocrat claims to have unleashed the war to allegedly overthrow the “Nazi” regime in Kyiv and return Ukraine “to the bosom of Mother Russia”, where she belongs, according to his ideas. Instead, his invasion made Ukrainians, and even those who once sympathized with the Russians, bitter enemies of Russia for at least a generation.. Ukraine is now fighting for its independence from Moscow and aims to join the EU.
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Putin thought that by taking over Ukraine he would force the West to respect Russian military power. But while the war brought only humiliation. She showed that Russia, with an economy smaller than that of the state of Texas, is just a " The Russian army showed its cruelty and incompetence. She needed mercenaries from Chechnya and Syria to at least withstand the Ukrainian strike.
Having made all these mistakes and started the war solely on his own initiative, Putin is desperately looking for anything that he can present as a “victory”. He wants to take control of the entire Donbass, the southern Black Sea coast to Odessa, in order to connect the occupied territories in the east with the occupied Crimea. And he aims to do it before May 9, when Moscow will hold a parade in honor of the Victory Day in World War II.. After all, the Russian army on this day remembers the times of its greatest glory.
Therefore, it seems that Putin is preparing a new dual strategy. First, he will regroup his depleted depleted army, concentrating their target and holding onto the smaller military target.. Second, he escalates systematic brutality by continuing to destroy Ukrainian cities with rockets and artillery, killing as many civilians and inflicting as many economic losses as possible, and driving as many people out of their homes as possible.. He hopes that the first will lead to the fall of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least in the east, and the second to the fall of NATO, whose member countries will not withstand the influx of such a large number of refugees.. He hopes that under such humanitarian pressure, the West will begin to put pressure on Kyiv, demanding to give Putin everything he wants, so long as the war stops.. That is why Ukraine and NATO need an effective counter-strategy.
It must rest on three pillars. First, Ukraine should get diplomatic support if it comes to negotiations with Putin.. But it is also necessary to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the best weapons and conduct the necessary training in order to expel the Russian army from Ukrainian territory.. Secondly, every day you need to say loudly at the slightest opportunity that the world is at war “with Putin”, and not with the Russian people as a whole.. That is, to say the opposite of what Russian propaganda says. And thirdly, it's time to get rid of purchases of Russian oil, which remains the main source of income for Putin's Russia.. This plan should move the forces within the country that will deprive Putin of power.
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The New York Times admits it's a very risky proposition with a high end result.. Putin's fall could land someone even worse in the presidency. It could also cause lasting chaos and the collapse of Russia.. But great results are possible.. Power could end up in the hands of someone with a minimum of decency and ambition to build Russian dignity and a sphere of influence based on a new generation of Tchaikovskys, Rakhmaninovs, Sakharovs, Dostoyevskys and Sergeyev Brins rather than oligarchs with yachts. Then the world will be a better place. There will be many opportunities for healthy collaboration.
Only the Russian people have the right and power to change their leader. But it will still not be easy to do, because the former KGB officer Putin has surrounded himself with other loyal intelligence officers.. And it's almost impossible to overthrow him.. However, there is still one potentially successful scenario.
The Russian army is a source of pride in the Russian structure.
And if it continues to suffer catastrophic defeats in Ukraine, a situation will arise in which either Putin will want to liquidate his military command, making the generals scapegoats for failure, or the army, knowing about the impending " The Russian Armed Forces have never been on good terms with the intelligence agencies whose leaders surround Putin..
Ultimately, for a new, sustainable world order to replace the post-Cold War one, the Russian people must elect a new leader.. It is also important that the US become a model of democracy and stability that others will want to emulate.. Ukrainians make the biggest sacrifices for every inch of their freedom. So asking Americans to make the smallest sacrifice to preserve their democratic heritage is not much at all..