The Joe Biden administration has been vocal about defending something called " But there is no such thing. There are no planetary scales of space in the management of general rules or a few key forces. And the war in Ukraine reminded of this.

Thus, in his article for the Wall Street Journal, writes a professor at the Catholic University of America and a researcher at the Hoover Institution, Jakub Grigiel. In his opinion, there are also no " Rather, regional revisionists threaten their neighbors. Temporary equilibrium in regions with their own power dynamics is determined by local historical rivalry. Such an equilibrium is unstable and tends to slide into war.. She needs attention and control.

Over the past three decades, local orders in the regions: in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, have been relatively stable.. And local conflicts were curbed. Therefore, it seemed that there was a world order. Liberals saw this global stability as a result of international rules, the rise of democracies, and the revival of international trade.. Like, it's a rule-based world order created by democracies and the trading world.. Realists, on the other hand, saw a world order anchored by a rough balance between the great powers: the US, Russia, and China.. Their nuclear arsenals effectively played the role of a calming instrument of balancing.

Both of these views of the world order put too much emphasis on the global nature of this stability.. If we look at the world through the prism of regional orders, the picture will be more disturbing.. Russian wars against Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, Iranian behavior in Iraq, Yemen and Syria, Chinese military expansion in Asia are all signs of growing local instability.. But so far, these have been intermittent pushes, provoked by uncertain revisionist forces, held back by American power.. The current war of Russia against Ukraine was the first full-scale military offensive aimed at radically changing the local balance of power.. Russia wants to be the decisive power in Europe. And for this he needs to dominate Ukraine.

[see_also].

WSJ: Beware of fake peace in Ukraine.

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Regional orders are fragile for two reasons. First, military power is more likely to be used in a local context than in a dispute between distant rivals.. For local players, the stakes are high and the risks can be limited. The revisionist force is more likely to achieve its goal, such as conquering territory or taking control of the political life of neighbors, because of the war of war rather than through negotiations. And the victims of aggression will not put up with enemy occupation without a fight. After all, both sides are not so much interested in preventing war as in turning it into a useful tool to achieve their goals.. War is a permanent regional reality.

The US tends to see stability as the broad goal of its broader strategy.. As President Biden said, the goal is " But regional revisionists in Eurasia are not afraid to press on their fronts to expand their influence.. The threat is that they will also choose war instead of obedience, regional disorder instead of loss of independence. The U.S. will have to figure out how to hold on to or accept instability in regions that are important to its national interests..

The second reason for the instability of regional orders is that local rivalries are geographically limited but enduring.. Local conflicts are justified or based on historical encroachments. Real or fictional images inflicted in the past generate a thirst for revenge, dreams of grandeur spur territorial conquest, and national self-confidence motivates stubborn hostility towards aggressive neighbors.. When the source of political action is a claim to national greatness, it becomes very difficult to reach diplomatic compromises.. Protracted conflicts are beginning to seem more acceptable than negotiations.. Local antagonists want to make the other side pay the highest possible price, whether they are attacking (like Russia) or defending (like Ukraine).. The calculation is that higher risk will bring higher reward. The aggressor expects to gain more influence and a wider territory, while the defender expects independence and greater security..

[see_also].

The Atlantic: Ukraine must win.

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For a far-flung power like the US, the long-term nature of regional conflicts in Eurasia is a political challenge.. Managing such conflicts requires consistent intervention and constant presence.. But the US approach is to participate in regional geopolitical dynamics only when the balance needs to be restored.. After that, they move to another region. Therefore, we hear talk about the "

Very rarely in history do local conflicts end forever.. This was only when a crushing war redrawn the borders with blood. The Franco-German conflict of the 19th and 20th centuries turned into a friendship only after two disgusting world wars. The end result was good for Europe. But to get it, the content had to go through an avoidable tragedy.. The current war of Russia against Ukraine will also end. But the conflict between the two peoples is never.

The best one can hope for is a delicate balance that will require continued support through Western economic and military assistance for Ukraine..

If Ukraine survives Russian aggression and remains an independent state, the Biden administration will be tempted to declare it a victory for a world order based on rules and democracy.. But it's a mistake. Victory will belong only to Ukraine. It will bring fragile regional stability, not a renewed world order..