It is becoming more and more clear with each passing day that Chinese leader Xi Jinping's decision to double down on his "

If the bloodiest conflict since World War II ends with the retreat of the Russian army, failure, or their political resignation, this could also be the greatest threat to Xi's own leadership as it prepares for the decisive 20th Communist Party Congress in November.. Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederic Kempre writes about this in an article for CNBC.. Geopolitical assessments still suggest that we should expect a carefully prepared congress that will approve a third term for the Chinese leader at the head of state, or even leave him in office "

But Putin's failure of any magnitude could " Xi Jinping's control remains 'comprehensive' but 'not final', he says. There is no doubt that China's leader should consider the consequences of Putin's ruin. In what is arguably the most important speech of his long political career, President Joe Biden in Poland backtracked from a prepared text and suggested the price Putin must pay for his unjustified, unprovoked and criminal war against Ukrainian civilians..

" Three days earlier, in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called Xi Jinping Putin's ally.

“Beijing has joined Moscow in undermining the right of independent countries to choose their own path. China has provided Russia with political support, including spreading outright lies and disinformation,” he said..

The future of the global order and who will shape it depends no less on the survival of Ukraine. It is time for the world's democracies to turn their reactive response to Putin's challenges into proactive acceptance of strategic opportunities.. Putin's failure in Ukraine could undo the world's authoritarian offensive, undermine the strategic common goals of Moscow and Beijing, and expose the hypocrisy that pervades Xi Jinping's global ambitions..

The problem for the leader of China is that in the most important years for his historical legacy, he created trouble for himself.. And they grow up. All this, of course, cannot turn fellow party members against him, especially after the elimination of all potential political opponents. However, the problems radically changed the mood in the Communist Party. Xi's failure to foresee Putin's military failure and his war crimes could deepen doubts about the Chinese leader's acumen on many other fronts..

First, doubts could lead to Xi Jinping's more assertive and aggressive global approaches, rejecting Deng Xiaoping's main leadership philosophy of " Even communist elites with hostile views of the US are aware that a quieter build-up of Chinese military, economic and technological power would produce better results than aggressive militant diplomacy..

Second, the suppression of the power and freedom of the Chinese private sector, including the tech giants, comes out sideways. Loss of confidence and declining foreign investment in the Chinese private sector, which still accounts for 60% of GDP, is slowing down Chinese economic growth and reducing its ability to compete.

Third, many members of the elites in the Communist Party, especially those of Xi's generation or older, fear for their careers and destinies if Xi Jinping remains in power for a third term in November.. Rumors are circulating that the Chinese leader will lead a new generation of politicians who will be more loyal to him.. And all potential successors will be removed.

And fourth, the myth that Xi Jinping skillfully suppressed the COVID-19 pandemic has remained the main source of confidence in his leadership until recently.. But new outbreaks began in the country, due to which the cities of Shenzhen and Changchun in northern China had to be closed.. Xi Jinping's tough approach to the pandemic has left the country with low vaccination rates, vaccines that are not very effective, and unexpected economic hardships..

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In this context, Xi and Putin signed a statement on Feb. 4, against the backdrop of the Beijing Winter Olympics and the levy of 150,000 Russian troops to the Ukrainian border, saying that “the new interstate relations between Russia and China are better than the political and military alliances of the Cold War.. And the friendship between the two states has no limit, and there are no forbidden areas for cooperation”.

It would be naive to believe that Putin has not shared his invasion plans with Xi Jinping. That the Chinese leader did not understand that the joint statement was a " Western leaders mistakenly believe it's time to separate Xi Jinping from Putin. They believe that reputational, economic and domestic political considerations will inevitably change China's leader's calculations.. However, Xi must counter this with greater strategic imperatives: his determination to defend the northern border, his desire to continue enjoying access to Russian energy (and now very cheap) and everything that China is getting thanks to Russia's actions.. In particular, Moscow distracts Washington everywhere: from the Middle East to elections in America itself..

Finally, even with a very weakened Putin, Xi Jinping is better off than without him at all, given how much the Chinese leader has invested in the relationship, holding more than 30 meetings since 2014.. The potential consequences for Xi Jinping of overthrowing a Russian autocrat are so dire that he is likely to back a last-minute peace allowing Putin to stall with little gain in Ukraine.. However, the consequences of Putin's defeat for global Chinese interests will not disappear..