Vladimir Putin failed to quickly overthrow the democratically elected government in Kyiv. Now he was faced with a choice: either agree to negotiations and end the war, or escalate.. Some dialogue is already underway, but Putin himself is sending signals that he will not agree to anything short of the total surrender of Ukraine..

Two weeks ago, CIA Director William Barnes told Congress that the Russian leader was " He “will try to defeat the Ukrainian army, despite civilian casualties”. Ivo Daalder, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former US ambassador to NATO, writes about this on the pages of The Guardian.. He notes that the Kremlin has a wide choice for escalation: from a deliberate decision to unleash a direct war against NATO to a missile attack on the territory of one of the allies or the use of weapons of mass destruction..

How should NATO respond to all these scenarios Deliberate attack against one of the participating countries, according to Daalder, is unlikely. Because the allies have made it clear that they will " Such an attack would mean a full-scale war. And given the state of the Russian army, Moscow is likely to lose in it. Other forms of escalation will require a more calibrated response.

The possibility of a Russian missile landing on NATO territory was highlighted by the recent strike on a Ukrainian base near the Polish border.. And what would happen if this missile hit Poland? NATO can respond to such an escalation by destroying the launcher or the aircraft from which it was fired.. Despite the risk, it will be an equal response, placing the responsibility for further escalation on Putin..

The use of chemical or biological weapons is a completely different story.. The U.S. has repeatedly warned that Russian fabrications about Ukrainian chemical weapons and “biological labs” could be a way to justify a Russian attempt to use something similar and blame Ukraine for it.. NATO's response will depend on the circumstances. Russia may bomb an industrial chemical or biological facility, blaming Ukraine for the consequences. She already hit the ammonia storage. Such attacks can lead to hundreds or even thousands of victims.. Everything will depend on the location, weather and other conditions..

NATO cannot leave such an escalation unanswered. At the very least, the alliance must destroy the forces responsible for the bombing of such targets with surgical precision.. The United States, Europe and other regions are also required to increase economic sanctions, for example, to ban the import of all Russian products and disconnect all Russian banks from the SWIFT system.

Moscow, no doubt, will blame Ukraine for any leaks of chemical or biological agents in order to use this for further escalation.. Russia may use industrial chemical agents such as chlorine and ammonia to poison civilians, as it did in Syria. Planes and helicopters dropped barrels filled with chemicals on civilians. NATO will be forced to respond to such cruelty. For example, the alliance can close the Ukrainian skies to prevent further such attacks.. Of course, sending NATO aircraft into the war zone will mean that they will destroy Russian aircraft and air defenses.. But it will be the right reaction to the deliberate escalation of Russia. Although less likely, Russia could use real chemical weapons (mustard gas or sarin), biological agents, or even nuclear weapons.. After all, Russian military doctrine allows the conflict to escalate in order to force the other side into submission.. Putin's desire to win makes any weapon an option.

[see_also ids\u003d" An effective reaction does not require the start of a full-scale war against Russia.

But if Russia uses chemical or biological weapons, not to mention nuclear, NATO should directly stand up for Ukraine by sending air, land and naval forces. Russia must be defeated, and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty must be fully restored. No one wants to unleash a third world war. But Putin needs to know that if he escalates, NATO's risk-benefit calculations could change.. But Moscow should be told that under such circumstances, NATO will legitimately come to the aid of Ukraine.. Russia and other players must understand that escalation is unprofitable.