After a chaotic month, it is now clear what strategies are being played out in Ukraine. Right now, Vladimir Putin's Plan B is opposed to Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Joe Biden's Plan A.. And it is to be hoped that the presidents of Ukraine and the United States prevail. Because the potential Kremlin plan " And Plan D is not even worth mentioning at all, writes three-time Pulitzer winner Thomas Friedman in an op-ed for the New York Times..

He explains that he has no secret channels in the Kremlin. And he draws all his conclusions on the basis of observations of Putin's behavior in the Middle East over the years.. In his opinion, the Russian autocrat realized that his plan " Expectations that the Russian army would march through Ukraine, eliminate the " Now he is implementing the next plan, shelling civilian Ukrainians, their apartments, hospitals, businesses and even bomb shelters.. All this is done only to ensure that Ukrainians run away from home, creating a massive flow of refugees both inside Ukraine and in neighboring NATO countries, which is much more important.

“Putin, I suspect, thinks that if he cannot occupy and hold all of Ukraine by military means and simply impose his terms of peace, he should send 5-10 million Ukrainian refugees, mostly women, children and the elderly, to Poland, Hungary. In order to create such a large social and economic burden that these NATO countries begin to put pressure on Zelensky and demand that he agree to Putin's conditions in order to stop the war, ”the American journalist believes.

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Putin apparently understands that his plan involves the commission of war crimes and could forever make Russia a pariah. However, he hopes that the need for Russian oil, gas and wheat, as well as Russian support in solving regional problems such as Iran's nuclear program, can quickly force the world to return to normal business with the "

According to the author, Putin's plan " France-Presse news agency reported on Sunday: “More than 3.3 million refugees have left Ukraine since the start of the war.. This is the biggest refugee crisis since World War II.. Another 6.5 million people have been displaced internally.”.

At the same time, Putin's plan " Plan A of the Ukrainian President is being implemented even better than expected. He suggests that the Ukrainian army should stop the enemy’s advance on land, break his spirit, and after that Putin can be forced to agree to Zelensky’s peace terms with minimal concessions so that the owner of the Kremlin saves face. Despite Russia's barbaric bloodshed and bombardment, Zelenskiy is doing the right thing by still seeking a diplomatic solution.. At the same time, he maintains the morale of his citizens and calls on Putin to negotiate.. Friedman also recalls the conclusions of Western officials and experts that the war in Ukraine has " Russia no longer has the strength to go on the offensive against Kyiv and no chance of capturing the capital, Kharkov or Odessa. In addition, the economic sanctions of the West are also bearing fruit, collapsing the Russian economy and forcing Russian factories to stop..

Now the following question is acute: “The pressure on the NATO countries with the help of refugees driven abroad by Putin’s military machine will defeat the pressure from which his army in Ukraine suffers and which becomes more and more difficult every day? The answer to this question may determine when and how this war will end.. Will it have clear winners and losers. Or will it all end in some dirty compromise in favor of Putin or vice versa.

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Friedman does not exclude that Putin may regard any compromise as a humiliation that will undermine his authoritarian rule.. In that case, he can launch plan " According to the journalist, this plan will include air or missile attacks on the support lines that lead from Poland to Ukraine.. Actually, it is possible that the strike will be delivered on Polish territory, which means on NATO territory.. Then other allies will be forced to come to the aid of Poland. Putin appears to be counting on the need to engage the Russian military head-on to spark a powerful debate in NATO countries, especially the United States..

No matter what happens in Ukraine. If Putin can split the alliance, it will be a huge achievement with which he can cover up all his defeats..

The author also admits that if Plan A and Plan B fail and Plan C fails, then the Russian dictator may feel he has been cornered.. And at this point, he is able to risk using a nuclear weapon for the first time since Nagasaki.. This is hard to talk about and write about.. But ignoring such a possibility would be too naive..