Alyaksandr Lukashenka owes a heavy debt to the Kremlin that may have to be paid off soon. The authoritarian ruler of Belarus only retained power thanks to Russian financial and military support, which allowed him to suppress mass protests in 2020 after the presidential election was rigged..
But now Vladimir Putin needs more troops amid the problems that powerful Ukrainian resistance has given him, writes Politico. Lukashenka has already helped Russia a lot. He allowed Russian troops to enter the territory of his country under the guise of exercises, in order to then attack Kyiv. Moscow also uses Belarusian roads and railways to provide its forces, launch missiles and conduct airstrikes.. Also, wounded Russian soldiers are treated in Belarusian hospitals, and the dead are made up in Belarusian morgues..
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“If they come to us with severe injuries, we treat them. What's bad about it? We will provide treatment and support,” Lukashenka said at the end of February.
On Friday, he visited Moscow, where he was promised updated military equipment.. The Belarusian army is building up forces near the Ukrainian border. But, despite the growing concern of Ukraine about the intention of Belarus to join the Russian attack, until 48,000 Belarusian troops budge.
“The movement of troops has nothing to do with the preparation, not to mention the participation of the Belarusian army in a special operation in Ukraine,” said Chief of the General Staff and Deputy Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktor Gulevich.
Unpopular War.
There are many reasons for this precaution.. Joining the attack against Ukraine is very unpopular. Polls show that only 3% of Belarusians support such an idea, says Hryhoriy Astapenya, head of the Belarusian initiative at Chatham House.. Belarusian invasion could destroy the army where Lukashenka's regime is holding on.
“The Belarusian army has never fought anywhere. She is not ready for external conflicts. Lukashenka is definitely not a fool. He understands that there is a great risk of failure of the Belarusian army, that it suffers heavy losses. And then his last fans will turn their backs on him. And it will be a downfall for Lukashenka,” said retired colonel and former commander of the 38th airborne brigade in Brest Valery Sakhashchik..
Unexpectedly powerful resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine defeated the well-armed Russian army. And this is a huge problem for small and not ready for war Belarusian troops.. According to Sakhashchik, the excellent work of the Ukrainian forces is the most important factor due to which Belarus did not join the Russian invasion..
" The actions of the Ukrainian army, territorial defense, as well as the population exceeded all expectations,” added the former Belarusian military.
Former Minister of Defense of Ukraine and former adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky Andrey Zagorodniuk is convinced that Belarusian troops will not become a serious problem for the Ukrainian army.
“They will not send a large number of forces, there will not even be 20 thousand soldiers. Most likely, they will be able to send several battalions. Belarus is not able to send weighty groups. In addition, there is no appetite for war there: neither in the army nor among civilians. And propaganda doesn’t work there like it does in Russia,” he explained..
In Kyiv, they are warning louder that Lukashenka could be pressured by the Kremlin and join the Russian war. Late last week, the government pointed out that a Russian fighter jet had targeted a Belarusian village to justify Minsk's involvement in the invasion.. However, this scenario did not come true..
On Sunday, the head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Aleksey Danilov, said: “The FSB of the Russian Federation and the special services are trying to convince Belarusians to change into Russian uniforms and enter Ukrainian territory under Russian flags.”.
Caution is important.
Until now, Lukashenka has limited himself to logistical and verbal support for Putin. On Thursday, he told his army commanders that Minsk intends to limit its actions only to protecting Russian forces in Belarus from “Ukrainian attacks.”.
“We must act so that they cannot cut off the Russian army from support, do not get into the rear of the Russian army and strike from behind,” Lukashenka said.
Meanwhile, hundreds of Belarusians who fled the Lukashenka regime formed a battalion that joined the Ukrainian army in the battle against Russia.. Opposition warns of consequences if Belarus joins Russian invasion.
Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who competed with Lukashenko in the 2020 elections, called on the Belarusian military, if forced to participate in the Russian invasion, to "