The US and Europe are doing the right thing when they support Ukraine in its brave defense against Russian invasion.. But as the facts on the ground change every day, the West needs to think carefully about its ultimate goal: whether it will be a Russian defeat or a Ukrainian victory.?

Henry Olsen writes about this in an article for the Washington Post.. Russia invaded Ukraine to force it to become its satellite, and maybe even annex the country through brute force. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been outspoken about these goals from the start.. Therefore, a Russian victory will mean the elimination of the legally elected Ukrainian government and the establishment of a puppet government that will not only abandon any intentions to join the EU or NATO, but will also resolutely turn the country to the east.. These key goals were once again outlined in Putin's new "

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Western efforts have been focused on sparing Russia the opportunity to impose such conditions on the Ukrainian people.. Economic sanctions will destroy Russia's ability to fight. And military aid gives Ukrainian soldiers the means to resist Russian pressure.. Tens of thousands of promised Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles will help Ukrainians crush the Russian offensive. If he can be stopped, Russia will not be able to force Ukraine to comply with its demands.. So, Ukrainian freedom will be preserved. And this is precisely what the Russian defeat will mean..

But this is only the beginning of the situation.. If the offensive is stopped, Russia may still be able to occupy new parts of Ukrainian territory, especially in the south of the country along the coast of the Azov and Black Seas.. Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk remain under its control. It is clear that Ukraine will not accept this. President Volodymyr Zelensky will want to return Ukrainian territories and restore the borders guaranteed by the Budapest Memorandum since 1994.

It will be a victory for Ukraine. For the West, supporting these efforts will mean very different levels and types of military assistance.. Ukraine cannot recapture the occupied territories without offensive weapons. This means that you will need a lot of tanks, infantry armored vehicles and artillery systems.. It will also require a large number of aircraft: both fighters and air support aircraft capable of bombing Russian ground forces.. And large-scale deliveries of air defense systems are also required..

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Providing Kyiv with all this will put the US and its European allies in a much more aggressive position towards Russia.. Putin may use this as an excuse to escalate the conflict by countering NATO efforts to strengthen its position in the alliance, openly threatening or even launching an invasion of the Baltic states.. Both scenarios would require a direct NATO military response against Russian forces. And the chances of a dangerous escalation between nuclear combatants will greatly increase..

The current logic of the West's efforts seems to be seeking a Russian retreat when its military reaches a stalemate and economic sanctions stifle its economy..

“I think it can happen like this. But Zelensky is unlikely to stop demanding Western support if things go differently.. And then the US and Europe will have to decide whether they are ready to go to any lengths to help defeat Ukraine.. Will they be satisfied simply with the defeat of Russia, ”the author believes.

He adds that " There is no doubt who the aggressor is now and has been for the past 20 years. From the poisoning of pro-Western presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 to the annexation of Crimea and support for militants in 2014, Putin has demonstrated all the time that he is not going to allow any Ukrainian government to join the West.. The current invasion is just the latest and most brutal proof of Putin's intentions..

However, " NATO is simply not ready to defend its borders from a Russian invasion. It will take years for European member states to build up the necessary military capabilities to effectively defend the Baltics.

Poland and Romania, also threatened by Russian military deployments, also need time to develop their defenses.. It's foolish to risk a potential escalation that the alliance isn't ready to deal with now.. We will have to make solid decisions on the boundaries of Western intervention. We can hope and pray that the war in Ukraine will end soon. But even so, the conflict for the freedom of Ukraine and Europe will last for years. The US and NATO should think strategically about this new, long-term struggle.