For quite a while now, rumors have been heard from the White House about some kind of "wonderful" plan for a peaceful settlement of the Middle East conflict, although recently they have calmed down somewhat. This will be, as we are assured, an offer that the Palestinian Authority cannot refuse.. But since the movie "The Godfather" came out on screens, this formula has lost its unambiguity, - writes Alexey Tsvetkov in a column on "Radio Liberty".

The fact that this initiative has been relegated to the background can, of course, be attributed to elections in the United States, which have drawn all the attention of the administration to themselves, time will tell. But this is hardly the only factor, and now, probably, we can say that not the main. Let's start with the measures that the White House has taken regarding autonomy. Jerusalem was first recognized as the capital of Israel, despite the fact that the Palestinians claim the city in this capacity.

In addition, Washington announced the abolition of subsidies to the Palestinian territories in the amount of over $ 200 million. And in September, the Palestinian Authority’s office in the capital of the United States was closed on the pretext that the Palestinian leadership showed no intention of entering into negotiations with Israel. Against this background, it is hardly surprising that the government of autonomy refuses to meet Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kouchner, in charge of the Middle East initiative..

From all this, it is easy to understand that Washington’s hopes for Palestinians ’compliance were based on a consistently tough stance against them;. But where does the optimism come from, if you remember that the hard approach did not help any of the predecessors of Trump (as, by the way, the soft one)? And yet, hopes at one time seemed quite justified: Trump's unprecedented close relationship with the actual leader of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known in everyday life as MBS, served as the basis for them..

In recent years, Sunni Muslims, whose leader Saudi Arabia considers itself to be, have seriously changed their priorities, and the danger, which, in their opinion, comes from Shiite Iran, overshadows the problem of Palestinians, which is now pushed into the background.. And in Israel, in view of the common enemy in Tehran, Riyadh sees almost an ally and has long been tacitly negotiating with him. As a result, the autonomy government in Ramallah is more vulnerable, especially since in the hands of the prince both diplomatic and financial levers.

MBS, however, already has a reputation as an impulsive leader.. On the one hand, he opened cinemas in the country, allowed women to drive a car, promised to diversify the economy and partially privatize the world's largest oil-producing company Aramco - making it clear that he intends to bring Saudi Arabia out of the bog of the Middle Ages and hydrocarbon dependence. On the other hand, he, along with the United Arab Emirates, is waging an endless war in Yemen against the allied rebels in Iran, which the UN has already declared to be the largest humanitarian catastrophe; put the richest compatriots in a prison in order to get a ransom from them; for no reason at all started a loud conflict with Oman, and as for the privatization of Aramco, the deal is unexpectedly frozen for an indefinite period.

The prince’s main miscalculation was the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, a French diplomat Talleyrand said at one time that it was worse than a crime, it was a mistake. Suddenly, a full deck of trumps, that is, a set of evidence, was in the hands of Turkey, a direct rival of Saudi Arabia in the struggle for leadership among the Sunnis.

Instead of putting the deck on the table, Turkish President Recep Erdogan dispenses the release of material evidence and thus, as it is called, cuts the victim's tail in pieces, not allowing the IBC to put an end to the crisis and pretend that nothing has happened. Investors are turning away from Saudi Arabia, the plans of a fairytale city in the desert are crumbling, many even doubt that the prince will hold onto the role of heir to the throne. His authority, which yesterday seemed indestructible, is heavily stained.

This, most likely, was the main blow to Trump’s “wonderful” plan.. Characteristically, Israel is one of the few countries that have not condemned the actions of the IBC and are trying to protect the reputation of Riyadh. It is not at all obvious that in the current situation Saudi Arabia will retain sufficient authority to maintain a peaceful settlement, which the White House has in mind..

Donald Trump strongly emphasizes the importance of an alliance with the Arab kingdom and points to the damage the United States will suffer if the $ 110 billion deal is canceled.. But he has to reckon with the horror and disgust that caused the murder of a journalist among many influential members of the Republican establishment.. And surely, if not himself, then his son-in-law sadly looks at the ruins of a once-promising plan.. In Ramallah, I suppose, breathed a sigh of relief.

This does not mean that Israel has lost support in the Sunni camp, although Turkey is least inclined to such support..

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unexpectedly visited Oman, the sworn enemy of Riyadh. It is possible that this step was, among other things, an attempt to diversify: they warn us against putting all the eggs in one basket. Be that as it may, it seems that another route out of the crisis rested on a predictable wall.

Reprinted with permission from Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Also join the TSN group.. Blogs on facebook and stay tuned for updates!.